APRIL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES: OUTLOOK

Hello everyone. I’ve been receiving a lot of requests to publish some early numbers for the April states, so I’ve put some preliminary numbers together for you.

I will continue updating this post as new data comes in.

Here are the current projections:

Screen Shot 2016-03-30 at 7.56.02 PM

Producing the following delegate allocation:

Screen Shot 2016-03-30 at 7.55.26 PM

  • Wisconsin: Bernie should do well here, though I’m not sure that he will do as well as the above numbers indicate. He has a significant presence on social media, and the demographics favor him. Wisconsin is an open primary, however, and the crossover anti-Trump votes by Democrats or Independents that would have otherwise supported him will be damaging. This effect is accounted for in the above numbers, though.
  • Wyoming: Bernie will win Wyoming by a margin somewhere between 25-60 points. Wyoming is a caucus and is only 0.8% African American.
  • New York: Hillary will do very well here. She has a massive social media presence among New Yorkers, and the state has a slightly larger than average percentage of African Americans. New York also has a closed primary.
  • Connecticut: This state is a toss up at the moment. Sanders has a fair social media presence here, but Connecticut has a closed primary. He has lost every fully closed primary (not semi-closed) thus far.
  • Delaware: Hillary should win Delaware by 10-40 points. This is because of the closed primary format, as well as the 21.4% African American population.
  • Maryland: Hillary will, more than likely, win Maryland by the biggest margin of any of the April primaries. This is because of the 29.8% African American population (more than Alabama, and effectively the same as Louisiana) and the closed primary format.
  • Pennsylvania: Because it is still several weeks until Pennsylvania votes, I can still see this one going either way, though it is clearly leaning Hillary. Pennsylvania has a closed primary as well, though Bernie has a decent social media presence in the state.
  • Rhode Island: It will be a while before Rhode Islanders vote, but it is currently leaning Bernie. Rhode Island has a semi-closed primary, which Sanders has done relatively well in so far (New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, North Carolina) compared to closed primaries. Rhode Island is 5.7% African American, but Bernie has only an average social media presence in the state. I would classify Rhode Island as a toss up.

As you can see, even if Bernie does remarkably well in Wisconsin, Wyoming, and Rhode Island, the delegate deficit he will pick up in Maryland alone will more than cover those surpluses. Hopefully the Sanders campaign campaigns intensively in New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland to try to control the damage. Bernie’s campaign may, in fact, be mathematically better off forgetting Wyoming and Rhode Island altogether if (for example) a couple of points of over-performance in New York means that he offsets twenty delegates worth of deficit he would have otherwise incurred; though outright wins are without a doubt important.

As always, thank you everyone for the interest. I am truly honored that so many people enjoy and look forward to my work.

-Tyler

36 thoughts on “APRIL DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES: OUTLOOK

  1. I think you’re overstating the Anti-Trump effect. It was only a major factor in Ohio, where Kasich was extremely popular among independents (a strong Bernie voting bloc).

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    • I suspect this to be the case in Wisconsin as well. I think the open primary worked in Bernie’s favor in Michigan for example. Ohio was a freak accident due to Kasich.

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  2. I predict Puerto Ricans and Dominicans along with young Black voters will give Bernie the vote in massive numbers that will allow him to win NY, barring any shenanigans from HIllary’s establishment buddies.

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  3. You were only off by 30 in Arizona. I’m surprised you’re not predicting a win in NY. What happened to your confidence?!?

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  4. Wow some surprising results. Especially New York, if Bernie only get’s 40% of the vote there that could be the end for him. Hopefully, wins in Wisconsin and Wyoming will give him the momentum to do well there. On the other hand, if Bernie wins New York, even with only 51%, that would be YUGE. I wonder how CNN will cover that. “Well NY is basically Vermont, so obviously he was going to win there”, before going on about Hillary’s lead with super delegates.

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  5. Hi Tyler,

    Just wondering if you’d noticed that Clinton’s “New York for Hillary” page on Facebook, which has close to 35,000 likes, hasn’t had a comment on it since October 16, 2015. It links to http://www.newyorkforhillary.org, which is a dead link.

    Also, telegraph.co.uk audited Twitter accounts and found that Clinton had approximated 59% faked users while Bernie had only 10%.

    The New York for Bernie Facebook page has close to 18,000 likes and the last post was about 1 hour ago.

    Curious if you hadn’t taken these things into account if they would make a difference.

    Thanks!

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  6. It baffles me that black voters continue to support Hillary when Bernor MARCHED WITH KING!! What did Hillary do during that time? Campaign for REPUBLICAN Barry Goldwater, a man who wanted to revoke civil rights.

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  7. It seems like Facebook likes would be less correlated when the primary is closed. Especially in New York, if it’s true that the date to change reg was October. Majority of unaffiliateds wouldn’t bother to switch to Dem for the Primary. back then she was still the anointed one. There’s no way for us to know people’s party affiliations on Facebook

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  8. Bernie is gaining Black voters in huge numbers..that will effect these states down the line..latest polls have him up by 11 points among black voters in Wisconsin…black voters in these states are more progressive and more aware of who he is than voters in the south,,they are younger as well..all makes a huge difference..

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    • As much as I want to believe that, the fox poll (with a similar margin+5 ) had him down 51-36 among non-white voters which includes hispanics which will bring that margin closer. That poll is most likely an outlier, but I really hope it is not.

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  9. First off, love your predictions — fantastic work. Just want to point out that some of your delegate allocations are a bit off though. States with an even number of delegates can only give an even numbered spread, and an odd number of delegates can only give an odd numbered spread. For example, since Wyoming has 14 delegates, in order to have a spread of 7 Bernie would have to win 10.5 delegates and Hillary would have to win 3.5 (assuming no delegates go to undecided or a third candidate). Here are actual the delegate spreads based on your current predictions (without factoring congressional district breakdowns):

    WI 4 8 16 22 26
    WY 4 6 6 8 8
    NY -85 -75 -55 -35 -25
    CT -9 -5 -1 3 5
    DE -7 -7 -5 -3 -3
    MD -47 -43 -35 -29 -25
    PA -43 -35 -21 -5 3
    RI -2 0 2 4 4

    Not that it really makes much difference, especially since the vote share will vary by congressional district anyway so we still wouldn’t necessarily get these results…

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  10. Because of all of the upcoming closed primaries, Bernie is just going to have to get some of the registered democrats to defect to his side.

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  11. Just to bring a couple of points up.

    I don’t think that Mr. Perigo’s predictions at this moment are INTENDED to be anything other than preliminary. Sanders’ momentum still appears to be growing, and obviously, that will affect the data Mr. Perigo uses. If he has a couple extra moments when he updates, it might be very useful if he appends the old data each time, so that we can see the trend as we close in on each election’s deadline.

    Secondly, I’m not a statistician, but I suspect that I am correct when I say, “If Sanders blows Wisconsin out of the water, there will be a compounding effect in N.Y., Conn., etc., that will propagate down the data stream.”

    Thirdly, this election cycle is unlike any other in my memory. This is very much NOT a partisan election, meaning that the political parties have a substantial margin of third-party independent voters. Those voters are ideologically isolated from their party designation (meaning, John Smith might put as his voting preference: Trump first, then Sanders, then Cruz, then Clinton). Right now, this isn’t a particularly strong factor, but in the general election, I think it will become absolutely crucial depending on which candidate each side gets.

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    • how did sanders lose all 5 states after his huge upset in michigan?

      and in wisconsin, hes now expected to win based no recent polls, so why do you expect he gains more momentum based on meeting expectations than he did by beating expectations in michigan?

      do you think before you type?

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      • Yes. I think before I type. Do you think about being polite before you type? I realize you probably were raised in a fashion that made it acceptable to be so openly hostile, but try to rise above your gutter upbringing. I’m sorry your parents failed at their job, but please, don’t take it out on me.

        As to your question. You have many errors of fact in there. Do you verify before you type? In several recent polls he is expected to win. Please use the google.

        As to your question. I expect he will gain more momentum now than in Michigan because, frankly, the longer this takes, the more embarrassing it is for Hillary Clinton and the less likely her sublime perfection will remain unchallenged in the minds of the faithful.

        Clinton’s an anointed candidate. She has the media behind her (ABC news had a report the other day covering Clinton, Trump and Cruz. Cruz is the guy with 54% of his target. Sanders? Who has come from 4% recognition? Not. Even. One. Word. And I don’t have long enough left to live to cover all the ways the New York Times has minimized the Sanders campaign.)

        Clinton has the party machinery behind her (using the google: check the debate scheduling. It was designed to aid Clinton). Everything has been geared to slip Hillary onto the throne. She can Get Things Done. Unless the thing you need done is outperform an old guy from Vermont who had no name recognition past Montpelier. Or unless the thing you need is for her to release her Goldman Sachs transcripts.

        Sanders path to the nomination is unlikely. He will need tremendous performances (performances that, frankly, Hillary can’t do on her own — even with the whole apparatus of the party and her former president husband out there cheating for every point they can, she still can’t just put it away). And the longer it takes, the more likely, I think, it will be that people will start coming over to his side.

        If you want to disagree, fine. But save the bullying for someone else. It won’t work on me.

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      • Sanders got stretched thin, hard to gain ground in 5 different states at once instead of being able to focus fully on catching up in 1 state. Ohio was the only state where he performed below expectations.

        Winning in WI and WY means he’ll have won 7 primaries in a row and 8 of the last 9. Why wouldn’t that provide some momentum going into NY, especially if WI is by a decent margin? WI/WY/NY all have their primaries on separate days on their own, much better than multiple states all on the same day.

        Do you think before you type? Or are you just another blind, trolling Hillarybot?

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  12. Does Sanders being down only 54-42 in the New York Q poll make it likely that he will outperform your projection? Does the Q poll and the fact he outperformed out West (except for Arizona) indicate a tightening race or am I grasping at straws?

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  14. For New York, I think the fact that Hillary was a senator there is probably the sole reason for her larger social media presence. And I think it will a false positive for her, as those ‘likes’ aren’t necessarily showing preference over Bernie: Are you able to see when people ‘like’ both candidates? If so, it would be useful to cancel out those people and see if that changes the results (assuming you haven’t already done that).

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    • Yes, Hillary was a senator in New York. But look at how THAT campaign went. She was up against a political no one, she spent a fortune (google for the details), her husband the ex-president went in with her, and she won by 12%. That’s like me challenging Stephen Hawking to a marathon and only winning by 12 minutes. On paper, it looks great, but when you actually look at the information contextually, it’s pretty frickin’ disappointing. And that, by the way, is the only elected office she’s ever run for that she’s won. Right now, she’s doing such a great job that she could still lose to a guy who started, literally, practically from zero. Sanders is about to overtake the entire establishment, and short of a miracle or a death, she won’t be able to stop him anytime soon. And Sanders is running a fair campaign.

      When the Republican machinery gears up, Clinton will be finished. She just won’t be able to raise the votes needed. No matter how much money she raises from her millionaire supporters.

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  15. Do you have data that could simulate outlooks, like this one, for previous states about a month BEFORE their voting? It would be very informative to see what potential these numbers have of moving from their current positions using your model.

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  16. Tyler do you know how undecideds play into this outlook? There was a Siena poll done back in late February/Early March that showed there were 22% undecided. I assume there’s a lot of undecideds now since it’s still pretty early.

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  17. This made me a little sad. He needs to do way better than this. Thank you though, hopefully when he crushes Wisconsin and Wyoming it brings him up in NY.

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  18. It is way too early to be doing projections for NY or anything past that. There is still 3 week until NY and 4 weeks until PA, CT, RI, MD, DE. With that said unless we know the number of 18-30 yo minorities in these states one cannot automatically assume Hilary has an edge especially with minorities in general. The only minority group Hilary is beating Sanders in is AA and only with the older AA. Also we have seen a surge of not only new voters but also a change in party affiliation so I think using closed primaries as a variable against sanders is a bad idea until we see how NY plays out.

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  19. I’m pretty sure New York is in fact a closed primary so I’m not sure that your model predictions can be accurate since you accounted for it having crossover voters when there won’t be.

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