At the beginning of April, when I posted the April outlook, I had initially believed that Bernie Sanders would be able to make enough progress to at least secure two to three victories on April 26th. For whatever reason, it seems as though Hillary has been able to prevent much of this progress from being made in a majority of the states that have elections tomorrow. Bernie has picked up a few tenths of a point in both Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, while losing support in Connecticut, Delaware, and Maryland. Here are my final projections:
I am estimating a single Hillary loss in the state of Rhode Island, though with a margin of only 6.4%. This close margin leads me to believe that it could still be a toss up. The estimated margin of the Bernie loss in Connecticut is about the same, 6.2%, and the estimated margin of the Hillary victory in Pennsylvania is 9.4%. If these margins hold true, this will produce a sixty delegate surplus for Clinton. Furthermore, if Bernie loses four or five of these states, I suspect he may drop out of the race. An additional sixty delegate deficit tomorrow will only strengthen the perception that obtaining the nomination is essentially impossible for him at this point.
Hello everyone. I’ve been receiving a lot of requests to publish some early numbers for the April states, so I’ve put some preliminary numbers together for you.
I will continue updating this post as new data comes in.
Here are the current projections:
Producing the following delegate allocation:
- Wisconsin: Bernie should do well here, though I’m not sure that he will do as well as the above numbers indicate. He has a significant presence on social media, and the demographics favor him. Wisconsin is an open primary, however, and the crossover anti-Trump votes by Democrats or Independents that would have otherwise supported him will be damaging. This effect is accounted for in the above numbers, though.
- Wyoming: Bernie will win Wyoming by a margin somewhere between 25-60 points. Wyoming is a caucus and is only 0.8% African American.
- New York: Hillary will do very well here. She has a massive social media presence among New Yorkers, and the state has a slightly larger than average percentage of African Americans. New York also has a closed primary.
- Connecticut: This state is a toss up at the moment. Sanders has a fair social media presence here, but Connecticut has a closed primary. He has lost every fully closed primary (not semi-closed) thus far.
- Delaware: Hillary should win Delaware by 10-40 points. This is because of the closed primary format, as well as the 21.4% African American population.
- Maryland: Hillary will, more than likely, win Maryland by the biggest margin of any of the April primaries. This is because of the 29.8% African American population (more than Alabama, and effectively the same as Louisiana) and the closed primary format.
- Pennsylvania: Because it is still several weeks until Pennsylvania votes, I can still see this one going either way, though it is clearly leaning Hillary. Pennsylvania has a closed primary as well, though Bernie has a decent social media presence in the state.
- Rhode Island: It will be a while before Rhode Islanders vote, but it is currently leaning Bernie. Rhode Island has a semi-closed primary, which Sanders has done relatively well in so far (New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, North Carolina) compared to closed primaries. Rhode Island is 5.7% African American, but Bernie has only an average social media presence in the state. I would classify Rhode Island as a toss up.
As you can see, even if Bernie does remarkably well in Wisconsin, Wyoming, and Rhode Island, the delegate deficit he will pick up in Maryland alone will more than cover those surpluses. Hopefully the Sanders campaign campaigns intensively in New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland to try to control the damage. Bernie’s campaign may, in fact, be mathematically better off forgetting Wyoming and Rhode Island altogether if (for example) a couple of points of over-performance in New York means that he offsets twenty delegates worth of deficit he would have otherwise incurred; though outright wins are without a doubt important.
As always, thank you everyone for the interest. I am truly honored that so many people enjoy and look forward to my work.