Hello everyone,
Bernie Sanders seems to have maintained about the same projected lead as indicated in my previous post. Recent polling, the Benchmark Politics’ benchmark, and the FiveThirtyEight projection seem to corroborate this. Here is my final estimate:
This is a particularly strong number, because Hillary Clinton has generally done much better in the open primary format, with the exception of Vermont and Michigan (though Michigan may as well have been a tie). Still, the demographics of Wisconsin favor Bernie more than Hillary, with an 83.3% non-Hispanic White, and 6.3% Black population. If the above numbers are accurate, this would produce a delegate allocation of 35 for Clinton, and 51 for Sanders.
However, it has been reported that there has been a record breaking number of early voting in the last two weeks in Wisconsin. This has strongly favored Hillary in previous contests, and it stands to reason that it will likely hold true in Wisconsin as well. For this reason I expect Hillary’s vote share to be slightly higher than the above number (10:11 PM edit: A recent Emerson poll shows Clinton trailing Sanders in early voting 38% to 52% which seems to indicate the opposite is true).
-Tyler
Tyler Pedigo 
Hi Tyler,
I just wanted to thank you so much for what you’re doing, and how well it’s going. I discovered you on Reddit, and am very grateful.
LikeLike
Thanks Charlotte, I appreciate your interest in my work!
LikeLike
How much are your non white voters numbers shifting given Hawaii and other results?
LikeLiked by 1 person
So far the results are not too far off from your Prediction Tyler
We’ll have to see if the Gap widens to the 59-41 margin you predicted
Benchmark politics exit poll is 60-40, so right in line with what you said
LikeLiked by 1 person
At this point, my “back of the envelope” excel sheet equivalent is putting the final vote at 56.5% Sanders. Benchmark’s margin call is coming up with the exact same number so that’s what I’m expecting at this point. Certainly satisfied with a 2.5% error!
LikeLike
Yeah, looks like Bernie was between your low and estimated amounts you gave a few days ago, not a bad result overall
LikeLiked by 1 person
more confidence bias. nearly every prediction had this at 10-18 so it was pretty hard to not be 3 points off lol.
if you retrofit your models to match demographics and polls then yea, they will kinda get closer.
they wont add value tho.
you need to perform in races where you add value, not mimic polls (while inflating bernie as usual)
LikeLike
I know you’re just a troll but I’ll address this nonsense anyways.
“confidence bias” hahaha. Never heard this one before. Did you invent this term?
Retrofitting is the point of regression analysis, that’s what forecasting is. Pretty hard not to be 2.5% off? The only person closer than I was last night was Benchmark Politics. I know a clown like yourself could never do what we are doing anyways.
You say I’m inflating Bernie as usual? What if I told you that over the course of this presidential race I have actually underestimated him? Making a post this afternoon to address this criticism.
I don’t know what your point is here dude. I guess you dislike Bernie? That’s fine with me man. Support whoever you want. But just because you say that I don’t know what I’m doing over and over doesn’t mean that it’s true. Maybe I can come down to Boca Raton and explain my methods to you someday.
LikeLike
Wow. 56.6 is the final resul just error of 0.1%. Congrats.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Tyler,
Do you have any thoughts to offer on the Panama Papers? Regardless of whether any of the current crop of candidates is mentioned in them, will the negativity of the event, which has already led to one Finland PM resigning, affect polling numbers do you think?
LikeLike
I think it may help Bernie. He went on record in 2011 talking about how the trade deal with Panama would only exacerbate the off-shore tax haven problem. Here’s a link: https://youtu.be/LrsI0Sw2hq8
LikeLike
Top people in the Hillary campaign are connected in a way. Not huge (yet) but definitely bad for her.
LikeLike
Hadn’t heard this Dane. You have a link?
LikeLike
The message here in Wisconsin has been to vote early to avoid any issues like those faced in Arizona. I would assume that is playing a large role in the record early voting numbers. That it was interpreted as an effort to suppress Bernie supporters may be why the early voting is favoring Bernie.
LikeLike
Yes. Bernie’s folks were encouraging early voting. It was actually pretty hassle free.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Emerson also had Bernie winning Latinos and only slightly losing African Americans (Within the margin of error)
Although both groups had a small sample size
Bernie’s weakest CD was the 4th, which is Milwaukee, but he won there as well in the poll
What I thought was key, was Emerson found that his polling got better as the week progressed (with the exception of a small dip on Saturday), his weakest night was the first night of polling, which tells me that the momentum is on Bernie’s side
LikeLiked by 2 people
If you factor out the First night of polling in Emerson, then their numbers match up nearly perfectly with Tyler’s, they get 60.4% for Bernie
LikeLiked by 1 person
Excited to see if this holds true tonight. Thanks Avi for the insight.
LikeLike
Hopefully the strict ID laws don’t prevent too many college students from voting, as that would cut into Sander’s numbers. Really hoping there’s a huge voter turnout and he can get 60 percent.
LikeLike
Some are theorizing that the voter ID req. in Wisconsin will favor Bernie. Sort of something no one wants to talk about though because of the implication.
LikeLike
oh goodness, hadn’t thought of that.
I hope everyone got a voice that wanted one.
LikeLike
A recent PPP poll actually showed Bernie outperforming Clinton with black voters, 51 to 40 (in favor of Bernie). Any chance these demographic figures affect your outcome predictions?
Click to access WisconsinPrimaryPoll33116.pdf
LikeLiked by 1 person
Note: the figures are on the bottom-left of page 5.
LikeLike
As much as that PPP datum looks positive to me, I generally disregard PPP as a whole. I don’t find PPP to be reliable enough to base any thoughts on what they say.
LikeLike
If that holds true for the entire state, it could really do some damage to the model. But yeah, that would absolutely alter the estimate.
LikeLike
The phone bankers for Bernie were directed in their call scripts to tell people about early voting and were giving people information on how to do so. Early voting might be more favorable to Bernie this time around.
LikeLiked by 1 person
it was indeed. One poll showed us leading early votes 52-38, 10% of respondents choosing not to reveal their candidate
LikeLike
Tyler, did you post a link to a Google Trends vs vote share sort of spreadsheet / could you make one for the states that have voted? I’m genuinely curious as to the overall strength of the correlation
LikeLiked by 1 person
I’ll see if I can throw something together for you
LikeLiked by 1 person
thanks dude! 🙂
LikeLike
Polling has shown early voting to be roughly 60-40 in favor of Sanders.
LikeLike
Correction. 52-38 in favor of Sanders. 10% of respondents who early voted did not reveal their choice.
LikeLike