THE ELUSIVE ELECTRON: ELECTRICITY THEFT AND GOVERNMENT FAILURE IN HAITI

Haiti has the lowest coverage of electricity in the Western Hemisphere, with only 37.9% of the population having regular access.[i] The energy sector in Haiti is broken by any modern standard, with frequent interruptions in service making it impossible to rely on the public utility to provide enough power to even maintain a freezer to preserve food. Something relatively unique to Haiti, however, is the rampant theft of electricity, with half of all residents being connected to the grid illegally; a problem that a public utility rarely has to contend with.[ii]

It is concluded that these problems stem from a failure of the government of Haiti: a complete lack of the institutional capacity needed to provide a public utility to the country. This problem results in much of the population, including hospitals and other major institutions, relying on generators which are highly inefficient, negatively affect the environment, and make the country as a whole more susceptible to volatile oil prices. Moreover, a decrepit electricity generation and distribution network creates the conditions that allow for 54% of the electricity that is distributed to be stolen or lost, while the world average is only 8%.[iii]

ANALYSIS

INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESS

            Not only contained within the energy sector, the Haitian government can be characterized by an astonishing lack of institutional capacity. This is largely because Haitian politics have historically been so unstable, with coups being a regular occurrence and widespread corruption being an accepted part of every day life. Dictators have regularly stolen millions of dollars from the Haitian treasury, straining the Haitian fiscal situation even more than it already is. Thus, one can see that government failure in the energy sector is not unique in the context of the broader governmental apparatus. Insofar as this is true, the shortcomings of Haiti’s past have largely shaped the present, and Haiti is still playing catch-up to the rest of the world. Institutional weakness as it pertains to the energy sector is as follows:

  • Loss of technical know-how: In 2005, the Secretary for Energy, Mines, and Telecommunications (SEEMT) was eliminated, with the Ministry of Public Works, Transport, and Communications (MTPTC), as well as the Bureau of Mines and Energy (BME) supposedly taking its place. The SEEMT was previously tasked with the creation of energy policy, enhancing the electrical grid, and maintaining current systems, thus, the SEEMT worked in a policy and technical capacity. Because there was no effort on the part of the Haitian government to integrate some of the human capital possessed within the SEEMT with the institutions that were assuming its responsibilities, a great deal of technical know-how was lost in the transition.[iv] The has led to a total and complete failure of the MTPTC to manage and maintain electrical infrastructure, much less advance and improve it.
  • Diffusion of responsibilities: There is no institution or agency tasked with regulating the energy sector in Haiti, ironically creating a problem that government, by its very definition, is supposed to solve. In theory, the MTPTC and BME both work with the state-owned electric utility Electricité d’Haïti (EDH) to advance national energy policy, but progress has been excruciatingly slow due to the fragmentation of responsibility. MTPTC, BME, and EDH have been working on a national energy policy since 2006, releasing a draft in 2012, but have not yet implemented any of it.[v]

 

RELIANCE ON TIMBER

Because the Haitian economy is so under-developed, with a GDP (PPP) per capita of only $1,800, real GDP growth rates of less than 2%, an unemployment rate of over 40%, and a fiscal budget deficit, nearly everyone in Haiti uses wood or charcoal for lighting and cooking. Those that are well off will instead use diesel generators as they cannot rely on a constant source of electricity from EDH.[vi]

  • Public health: 77% of energy usage in Haiti comes from the use of wood and charcoal for primary energy use, while accounting for 93% of the fuel used for household cooking.[vii] Like many other developing nations that use similar fuels, this has serious public health implications, as these fuels are often used indoors and emit harmful respirable toxins.
  • Environmental impact: The reliance on wood and charcoal fuels has resulted in a tremendous demand for timber in Haiti. Due to the relative size of the population to the country’s land area, this demand has caused complete deforestation of the entire country. Deforestation at this scale also creates a cascade of other problems, e.g. the displacement of topsoil from higher elevations to waterways which reduces agricultural output and has been documented to reduce certain river flows (and thereby impacting drinking water sources) by 80%.[viii] This is an unsustainable practice, and at this point, it will take decades to restore the environmental damage that has already been inflicted on the Haitian landscape.

 

THEFT OF ELECTRICITY

            Lastly, perhaps Haiti’s most obviously apparent problem in the energy sector is the widespread theft of electricity, with an estimated 54% of all electricity produced being stolen or lost in transmission. The root causes that create the conditions for rampant theft are EDH’s inability to bill and collect payments, an unregulated electrical infrastructure that has been cobbled together and not maintained, and a lack of commercial customers that shifts the revenue burden to those that are poorest.

  • Billing and collections: EDH, consistently suffering from the institutional capacity problems that also afflict the wider Haitian government, has shown a consistent inability to implement efficient billing and collection practices. Underscoring inefficient bureaucratic procedures are a lack of electricity meters that would otherwise determine how much to bill each customer. A recent USAID project installed proper connections and meters to over 8,000 households, and found that collection rates improved from 25% to above 90%.[ix] A central principle to collecting payment is first ensuring that the customer and utility can agree on the level of service consumption.
  • Poor infrastructure: The electrical infrastructure of Haiti is severely under-maintained. This is most easily attributed to a lack of financial resources, a lack of technical know-how, and a complete lack of regulation of the infrastructure itself. Because the energy grid is so frequently down (with most customers only receiving around ten hours of electricity per day[x]), this provides ample time for individuals to make illegal connections to distribution systems, as a majority of the time there is no associated danger. Moreover, a dilapidated grid that provides such poor service has the effect of creating a culture of non-payment, as consumers don’t feel like they are receiving a quality of service that would justify compensation.
  • Inflated prices: As previously mentioned, because businesses and organizations cannot rely on EDH to provide electricity around-the-clock, these organizations turn to diesel generators for their energy needs. The effect that this has on the economics of the public utility are far more impactful than one may initially assume. These firms are the would-be customers that would be best positioned to actually pay for the electricity service, but in their absence, the burden to pay falls on those with the least amount of resources. This means that the final cost of electricity is shaped by a customer base in which many aren’t paying, incentivizing EDH to raise their prices in an attempt to recoup the lost revenue from customers that are In sum, this artificially increases electricity prices, leading to a situation where electricity costs as much as $0.34/kWh in Haiti; far more than nearly every other country on Earth, and about triple the costs that one would encounter in the contiguous United States.[xi] This further incentivizes theft of electricity.

 

CONCLUSION

It is well documented that widespread, reliable access to electricity is a key for economic growth, thus, if the nation of Haiti ever wishes to become a legitimate player in the global economy, it must first solve this fundamental problem of electricity generation, distribution, and access. It is concluded here that the government of Haiti has failed in its totality for decades to build the institutional capacity needed in order to accomplish these goals, and the spillover effects include but are not limited to a failure to produce any national energy policy or decide who is to regulate the sector, widespread reliance on charcoal and generators for cooking and lighting that have detrimental public health implications, deforestation of the entire country, artificially and insurmountably high electricity prices for consumers, an exacerbated fiscal deficit due to EDH subsidies to recoup lost revenue, and the extremely prevalent theft of electricity. These findings show that, despite the efforts of numerous countries to aid the people of Haiti in ways that increase the resilience and efficiency of their electrical grid, the ultimate responsibility to advance the cause of the Haitian people falls squarely on their own government.

 

ENDNOTES

[i]    The World Bank. Access to electricity (% of population). 2012. 1 March 2017.

<http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS&gt;.

[ii]   USAID. Haiti Energy Fact Sheet – January 2016. Fact Sheet. Washington: USAID, 2016.

[iii]  The World Bank. World Development Indicators: Power and Communications. 2014. 27

February 2017. <http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/5.11&gt;.

[iv]   The World Bank. Project Information Document: Haiti Electricity Loss Reduction Project.

Report. Washington: The World Bank, 2006.

[v]   Energy Transition Initiative. Energy Snapshot: Haiti. Report. U.S. Department of Energy. Washington: U.S. Department of Energy, 2015.

[vi]   U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. The World Factbook: Haiti. 2017. 2 March 2017.

<https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html&gt;.

[vii]   Worldwatch Institute. Haiti Sustainable Energy Roadmap. Report. Washington: Worldwatch

Institute, 2014.

[viii]   McClintock, Nathan. Agroforestry and Sustainable Resource Conservation in Haiti. Case

Study. North Carolina State University. Raleigh: NC State, 2004.

[ix]   USAID. Haiti Energy Fact Sheet – January 2016.

[x]   Worldwatch Institute. Haiti Sustainable Energy Roadmap.

[xi]   Friedman, Lisa. Can Haiti Chart a Better Energy Future? 17 April 2013. 3 March 2017.

<https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-haiti-chart-a-better-energy-future/&gt;.

 

 

A GAME THEORETICAL APPROACH TO OBAMA’S SCOTUS NOMINATION

Obama nominated Merrick Garland to fill the vacant seat on the Supreme Court nearly five months ago. Garland is well liked by both conservatives and liberals, and could reasonably be considered the embodiment of non-partisanship and legal expertise. Garland was chosen for precisely this reason. Obama knew that any left-winger would never get a hearing by the Republican-led Senate, and that a moderate was the only chance he had to fill the seat before his second term expired. However, the Republicans have, nonetheless, continued to refuse to hold a hearing on the matter, and this is actually their best play at this point.

Merrick Garland is well-credentialed, and there is no objectively good reason for denying him an appointment to the court. To hold a hearing puts Garland in front of a microphone and exposes to the American people why he is such a good choice. To do that and then vote to reject him would unveil blatantly extreme partisanship. However, to hold a hearing and then vote to appoint him to the Court would show that Republicans had “caved to Obama,” and I think we all know that they don’t want that kind of press only a few months before the election. Thus, in the end, this is the reason I believe that not holding a vote is theoretically the Senate Republicans’ best possible play.

This strategy made more sense during the Republican primaries, while it was still unknown who the eventual nominee would be – i.e., would it be someone who has a chance to win the general election? But, now that Donald Trump has been crowned the nominee, it is highly likely that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency. So how will the Garland nomination unfold given this assumption?

  1. Hillary Clinton would have every incentive to nominate a highly liberal judge for the empty seat on the SCOTUS. If the Democrats take back the Senate, and I believe that they will, this becomes entirely feasible and will represent quite a large ideological shift within America’s highest court.
  2. If Hillary wins the general election, or if it begins to even appear as though she will win in the weeks leading up to November, current Senate Republicans have every incentive to hold a hearing and vote to put Garland on the Court so that Hillary is unable to nominate a more liberal candidate.
  3. If Hillary wins, or if it begins to even appear as though she will, Obama then has every incentive to rescind his nomination of Merrick Garland (before the Senate Republicans frantically try to vote him in) so that Hillary can shift the Court even further left.
  4. Rescinding Garland’s nomination is quite a cruel thing to do, and on its surface it feels like something that would adversely impact Obama; i.e. it’s “playing politics with the Court,” right? No, and Republicans will be unable to use this as an argument. This is because Obama can simply state that Senate Republicans were obviously uninterested in Garland’s candidacy, as they have had months to vote on him and never did, so in return, he withdrew the nomination. He would be “giving them what they wanted.”

This whole story is a perfect representation of the inability for Republicans to work with the Obama administration, the paralysis in Congress, and to be frank, it is quite disheartening to me personally. If Trump wins, who knows what will happen or who he will nominate. Regardless, I strongly believe that Garland will never make it on the Court no matter who wins in November.

-Tyler

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTIONS: KENTUCKY AND OREGON

As you all know, I’m just a graduate student with no income. If you would like to support my work and want me to be able to afford Top Ramen (or maybe even Mellow Mushroom pizza if you all are extraordinarily generous) while I’m working on these statistics, please click this link to donate to Tyler’s Food & Rent Fund!
Also, if you are an employer and have an open position, ideally in the D.C. area, I need a summer job! Please contact me if you think I would be a good fit for your organization. Paid positions only, please.


I am estimating that Bernie Sanders will win both primaries tomorrow, in Kentucky and Oregon. Using my metrics, Oregon seems poised to be a blowout Sanders victory, while Kentucky stands to be a hard-fought battle between both candidates for a win. I have put together an entirely new framework over the past week to account for votes going to other candidates, which is where my West Virginia projection fell most short. It is a more comprehensive model, and should be more accurate. For anyone concerned, my old model is generating very similar estimates for tomorrow. Here they are:

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 6.47.10 PM

KENTUCKY

The demographics of Kentucky favor Bernie Sanders. It is a white state with only a 7.8% African American population, similar to that of Kansas (5.9%), Wisconsin (6.3%), and Indiana (9.4%), all states that he has previously won. 7.8% is approximately at one standard deviation from the mean Black population percentage (4.2%) of the states that Bernie has won, meaning that it is not too far out of the ballpark for a Sanders victory. Bernie has also done quite well with campaign contributions in Kentucky, with the logged value of the relative number of <$200 contributions being 0.337. This is slightly under the average of states that he has won, 0.366, but far higher than the average of the states that he has lost, -0.07. These reasons are the primary drivers of my estimated Sanders victory.

Bernie’s Facebook presence in the state is poor, 73.91%, which is lower than any state he has won at this point. Bernie’s relative search interest in Kentucky is poor as well, with the three-day average currently at 0.927. The mean three-day average for all the states that he has won is 2.167, though just last week he won West Virginia at a relative search interest value of 0.94.

Lastly, Kentucky has a closed primary electoral format, which Bernie has never won before. Regardless of who actually wins the Kentucky primary tomorrow, I believe it will be a very close race.

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 7.32.23 PM

OREGON

Oregon is Bernie’s best state with the exception of Vermont when it comes to Facebook data. He has 84.314% of Democrat Facebook Likes, similar to Idaho (84.0%), Maine (84.09%), and Alaska (83.87%) (Vermont was 95.00%). Demographically, Oregon is about as good as it gets for Bernie. The African American population is only 1.8%, similar to Hawaii (1.6%), Utah (1.1%), and Alaska (3.3%). Only in Vermont and Alaska did Bernie outpace Hillary to a greater extent than in Oregon in the relative number of <$200 campaign contributions. These are the primary drivers of the massive margin of victory that I am projecting. It is difficult to reconcile the one and only poll (that showed Hillary with a 15% lead… but also had 19% undecided… and was also conducted well after ballots had already been received and presumably had already been mailed off by many voters) conducted in Oregon with this projection, but I refuse to arbitrarily tack on extra points because I have a hunch about something.

Oregon is entirely vote by mail. Clinton has traditionally dominated early voting, but Oregon’s format is unique to all the states that have already voted, so it is difficult to predict how much of an effect this will have. Personally, I doubt it will be significant due to practically every metric being overwhelmingly in Bernie’s favor (imagine Vermont was only vote-by-mail, would that have really changed the result?). Also, the party registration deadline was recent, April 26th. Bernie’s current relative search interest is quite low, but Oregonians began receiving their ballots two-three weeks ago. If we go back in the Google Trends data to April 26th (around the day voters began receiving ballots), Bernie’s relative search interest for the next week and a half was around 1.45; not bad. The average for all the states he has won is 2.167, but the standard deviation is 0.61, so 1.45 is not indicative of anything particularly remarkable.

Lastly, Oregon is also a closed primary, which Bernie Sanders has never won before.

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 7.33.22 PM

If the above estimates are correct, this should give Hillary Clinton a ~24 delegate deficit tomorrow. Good luck to both candidates, and happy voting to all you Oregonians and Kentuckians!

-Tyler

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTIONS: KENTUCKY AND OREGON

As you all know, I’m just a graduate student with no income. If you would like to support my work and want me to be able to afford Top Ramen (or maybe even Mellow Mushroom pizza if you all are extraordinarily generous) while I’m working on these statistics, please click this link to donate to Tyler’s Food & Rent Fund!


I am estimating that Bernie Sanders will win both primaries tomorrow, in Kentucky and Oregon. Using my metrics, Oregon seems poised to be a blowout Sanders victory, while Kentucky stands to be a hard-fought battle between both candidates for a win. I have put together an entirely new framework over the past week to account for votes going to other candidates, which is where my West Virginia projection fell most short. It is a more comprehensive model, and should be more accurate. For anyone concerned, my old model is generating very similar estimates for tomorrow. Here they are:

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 6.47.10 PM

KENTUCKY

The demographics of Kentucky favor Bernie Sanders. It is a white state with only a 7.8% African American population, similar to that of Kansas (5.9%), Wisconsin (6.3%), and Indiana (9.4%), all states that he has previously won. 7.8% is approximately at one standard deviation from the mean Black population percentage (4.2%) of the states that Bernie has won, meaning that it is not too far out of the ballpark for a Sanders victory. Bernie has also done quite well with campaign contributions in Kentucky, with the logged value of the relative number of <$200 contributions being 0.337. This is slightly under the average of states that he has won, 0.366, but far higher than the average of the states that he has lost, -0.07. These reasons are the primary drivers of my estimated Sanders victory.

Bernie’s Facebook presence in the state is poor, 73.91%, which is lower than any state he has won at this point. Bernie’s relative search interest in Kentucky is poor as well, with the three-day average currently at 0.927. The mean three-day average for all the states that he has won is 2.167, though just last week he won West Virginia at a relative search interest value of 0.94.

Lastly, Kentucky has a closed primary electoral format, which Bernie has never won before. Regardless of who actually wins the Kentucky primary tomorrow, I believe it will be a very close race.

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 7.32.23 PM

OREGON

Oregon is Bernie’s best state with the exception of Vermont when it comes to Facebook data. He has 84.314% of Democrat Facebook Likes, similar to Idaho (84.0%), Maine (84.09%), and Alaska (83.87%) (Vermont was 95.00%). Demographically, Oregon is about as good as it gets for Bernie. The African American population is only 1.8%, similar to Hawaii (1.6%), Utah (1.1%), and Alaska (3.3%). Only in Vermont and Alaska did Bernie outpace Hillary to a greater extent than in Oregon in the relative number of <$200 campaign contributions. These are the primary drivers of the massive margin of victory that I am projecting. It is difficult to reconcile the one and only poll (that showed Hillary with a 15% lead… but also had 19% undecided… and was also conducted well after ballots had already been received and presumably had already been mailed off by many voters) conducted in Oregon with this projection, but I refuse to arbitrarily tack on extra points because I have a hunch about something.

Oregon is entirely vote by mail. Clinton has traditionally dominated early voting, but Oregon’s format is unique to all the states that have already voted, so it is difficult to predict how much of an effect this will have. Personally, I doubt it will be significant due to practically every metric being overwhelmingly in Bernie’s favor (imagine Vermont was only vote-by-mail, would that have really changed the result?). Also, the party registration deadline was recent, April 26th. Bernie’s current relative search interest is quite low, but Oregonians began receiving their ballots two-three weeks ago. If we go back in the Google Trends data to April 26th (around the day voters began receiving ballots), Bernie’s relative search interest for the next week and a half was around 1.45; not bad. The average for all the states he has won is 2.167, but the standard deviation is 0.61, so 1.45 is not indicative of anything particularly remarkable.

Lastly, Oregon is also a closed primary, which Bernie Sanders has never won before.

Screen Shot 2016-05-16 at 7.33.22 PM

If the above estimates are correct, this should give Hillary Clinton a ~24 delegate deficit tomorrow. Good luck to both candidates, and happy voting to all you Oregonians and Kentuckians!

-Tyler

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTION: WEST VIRGINIA

Demographically, West Virginia seems like it should be a blowout in favor of Bernie Sanders. The polls, despite being all over the place, also seem to imply that West Virginia will be a blowout, with some giving Bernie a margin of victory as high as +28%(!). Recent polling has come back down to more believable margins, like +4% and +8%, which I think are much more in line with reality. Here is my estimate for what we will see tomorrow in the Mountain State:

Screen Shot 2016-05-09 at 6.50.51 PMWest Virginia is 3.4% African American, similar to states like Washington, Nebraska, and Colorado, all of which Hillary Clinton lost by margins that were quite large. But, there are other factors that point towards a <10% margin of victory. First, the relative search interest between the two candidates is leaning Hillary in West Virginia. The average relative search interest in all of the states that Bernie has won thus far is 2.23, whereas in West Virginia the relative search interest is 0.94; meaning that West Virginians are actually searching for Hillary Clinton more than they are Bernie Sanders. In fact, the lowest his three day relative search interest has ever been in a state that he ultimately won was 1.54 in Minnesota, and just last week in Indiana the relative search interest was 1.66. Secondly, Bernie’s share of Facebook Likes in West Virginia is only 75%, compared to an average of 81.2% for all of the states that he has won. I know that 6.2% doesn’t sound like much, but it really does make a big difference when you consider that the entire range of values for this measure is between 63.6%-95% (Mississippi-Vermont). West Virginia is also a relatively old state, with a median age of 41.9, compared to 37.78, which is the average median age of all the states that he has won.

Aside from this, West Virginia is a semi-closed primary, which usually helps Bernie slightly. In lieu of the Republican race being tied up at this point, it will be interesting to see if the semi-closed primary format attracts all of the independents to vote in the Democratic primary tomorrow. Also, Hillary’s comments on the coal industry have gotten quite a bit of media attention over the past week. This will probably help Bernie (even though Bernie pretty much has the same position on the issue). Also, the logged value of the relative number of campaign contributions is 0.36 in all of the states that Bernie has won so far, and in West Virginia this number is 0.405. This obviously looks positive for the Sanders campaign.

Lastly, on average, I underestimate Bernie’s vote share in semi-closed primaries by 3.27%, so I think we will end up with Hillary performing slightly worse in West Virginia than the numbers above indicate. Regardless, West Virginia is possibly the most unique state thus far with regard to the data that I look at. It’s really surprising how different pieces of data are really trying their best to pull my model very far in different directions in this state.

Thanks everyone, and happy voting to all of you West Virginians out there!

-Tyler

As you all know, I’m just a poor grad student. If you would like to support my work and want me to be able to afford Top Ramen (or maybe even Mellow Mushroom pizza if you all are extraordinarily generous) while I’m working on these statistics, please click this link to donate to Tyler’s Food & Rent Fund!

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTION: INDIANA

I’m only aware of one other outlet that is projecting a Clinton loss tomorrow in Indiana. Though Bernie Sanders has scaled back spending in Indiana, Hillary has cut all spending from states that have yet to vote in the Democratic primaries, presumably to save funding for the general election campaign against Trump (edgy assumption, I know). This Clinton spending cut seems to be showing up in the Google Trends data for Indiana, as Bernie has seemed to have drastically increased his search interest relative to Hillary. Here are my estimates for what we will see tomorrow night:

Screen Shot 2016-05-02 at 8.01.28 PM

Something about this projection doesn’t feel very right to me, though I suppose this concern is rooted in the surprisingly consistent polling results showing Hillary with a win. Despite this, every different configuration of my model, six total, is showing a Bernie win in Indiana. I have devoted quite a bit of time over this past week trying to see if it was possible to generate a different result, but it just wasn’t possible within my framework. Perhaps Hillary will win, and perhaps Hillary will lose, but regardless, I do think it will be very close.

There doesn’t seem to be any particular factor within all of my data that is significantly driving this result, though if I had to choose one I suppose it would be his slightly higher-than-average share of Facebook likes within the state, 78.5%, similar to Michigan (80.0%), Kansas (78.5%), Illinois (76.1%), and Missouri (76.9%). The Republican open primary that is being held tomorrow in Indiana will help Hillary by stealing independents that would’ve voted for Bernie, likely by around 0.4% (already factored into the above projection).

Michigan is perhaps the best analogue for Indiana. The Facebook data is very similar, and they are both open primaries. I believe that both have also had a minimal amount of early voting. One somewhat stark difference between the two states are the respective portions of the populations that are African American, with Michigan at 14.2% and Indiana at 9.4%, so Bernie should gain an advantage over Michigan in this respect. However, in Michigan, Bernie had a higher relative search interest measure (from Google Trends), about 14% higher. Bernie also had a higher number of individual campaign contributions in Michigan compared to Indiana; where he had about 1.56 times more <$200 contributions than Hillary in Michigan, and only 1.31 times more <$200 contributions in Indiana.

Thanks for the interest everyone, and happy voting to all you Hoosiers!

-Tyler

As you all know, I’m just a poor graduate student. If you would like to support my work and want me to be able to afford Top Ramen (or maybe even pizza if you all are extraordinarily generous) while I’m working on these statistics, please click this link to donate to Tyler’s Food & Rent Fund!

(edit: Also, if you are an employer in the DC area and have an open position, I need a summer job! Please contact me if you think I would be a good fit for your organization. Paid positions only, please.)

FINAL PROJECTION: NEW YORK DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

A few weeks ago, I posted an outlook for all of the April Democratic primaries. This outlook included my initial estimate for the New York primary, showing Bernie Sanders at 38.8% in the Empire State. We are all aware that both candidates have been campaigning relentlessly in New York, and for that reason I didn’t believe that the needle would really move much from the initial estimate. This assumption of mine is based on the concept of “dynamic equilibrium” that I learned about in my Political Science senior seminar during my undergrad, from a book called The Gamble that covered the 2012 general election. The idea is that, if both candidates are campaigning with approximately the same vigor and intensity in a state, they will both likely get about the same amount of media coverage there, capture the same number of votes in that time frame, etc. It’s a useful way to think about elections. Anyways, it does appear that Hillary Clinton has lost a very small amount of ground compared to my original estimate. Here are my final numbers for New York:

Screen Shot 2016-04-18 at 6.22.46 PM

I am expecting Bernie to do a couple of points better than the original outlook for a couple of reasons. First, his Facebook presence has become barely more favorable than it was, settling out at 70.00% of Democrat likes. This is similar to Virginia (70.37%), Florida (69.56%), and Iowa (71.87%). Secondly, his relative search interest on Google is decent; with the three day relative average coming in at about 2.05-2.1. This is in the ballpark of Illinois (2.05), Oklahoma (1.98), and Nebraska (2.02). The demographic makeup of the state, as well as the closed primary contest format still remain the greatest hurdle to any good Sanders performance in New York.

I am somewhat inclined to believe that New York’s unique primary rules will alter the results of tomorrow’s primary more in favor of Hillary. To vote in the Democratic primary, voters had to have been registered a Democrat by the end of 2015. My belief is that this will most certainly disproportionately affect Sanders supporters. A good friend of mine refers to the New York primary as the most closed primary of the season, and it will be interesting to see if that setup produces results that vary widely from the above projection. Thanks for reading.

-Tyler

WYOMING CAUCUS: FINAL PROJECTION

The Wyoming Caucus is tomorrow, and though not very consequential in terms of delegates (with only fourteen up for grabs), Wyomingites are apparently poised to give Bernie Sanders another win. And yes, the official demonym of those who reside in Wyoming is “Wyomingite.” Here is my projection:

Screen Shot 2016-04-08 at 8.24.51 PM

Hillary Clinton will perform poorly for the following reasons:

  • Wyoming has a closed caucus, which Bernie has consistently done very well in. He has won all seven closed caucuses to date (counting the recent Nevada flip).
  • Wyoming has the second lowest population of Black voters in the nation, 0.8%, second only to Idaho.
  • Bernie Sanders has a greater social media presence in Wyoming than every other state that has voted so far, with the exception of Vermont.
  • Hillary Clinton has a very low amount of Google search interest in Wyoming; it’s her third worst state in this regard, behind only Idaho and Vermont.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hillary drop below 20% in Wyoming by the time the caucus results are in. As we witnessed in Alaska, at caucus locations where Hillary has very little support, she runs the risk of being deemed a non-viable candidate (this threshold is 15% at all caucuses as far as I’m aware) and being awarded no delegates at that location.

Thanks for the interest folks, and Wyomingites, happy caucusing!

-Tyler

POLITICAL FORECASTING: AN IMPRECISE SCIENCE

Lately, there have been several occasions where people have compared the accuracy of my forecasts to FiveThirtyEight’s. As a big fan of Nate Silver and the rest of his team, I’m flattered that my work is even being talked about in the same conversation as theirs. I’m actually indebted to FiveThirtyEight anyways, because I use the Facebook data that they publish for free; and that variable is pretty much the cornerstone of my entire model. Granted, I’ve tried contacting the Facebook Data Science team on four different occasions to get the data personally, but a small fish like me can’t get a response (which is just fine, I know they have many other important things they are working on).

With all of that being said, I’d like to set some things straight:

  • I deeply respect the work of Nate and FiveThirtyEight, and I think they do a fantastic job.
  • It’s nice to be accurate, but if some other institution turns out to be more accurate than myself, it’s not as if I resent them for it. I’m happy for others when it turns out that they’ve done a good job through a solid analysis. That’s what this is all about.
  • This is a hobby of mine, and I do this because I think it is a fun mental exercise.

It’s tough to estimate the outcome of any election with perfect accuracy. There are hundreds (or maybe even thousands) of variables that can be used in a model, and the goal is to choose the fewest number of variables that possess the most predictive value. I receive criticism all the time because I’m not taking into account a certain thing, and I totally understand that many of those suggestions have predictive value. For many, however, I’ve already tested them and decided not to include them, most likely because the effect wasn’t statistically significant and/or I’m already capturing that effect through another variable.

Now, to address those who have suggested that I’m outperforming FiveThirtyEight. Simply put, I’m not. FiveThirtyEight has been closer than I have on average. Here is a breakdown of why that is the case:

  • FiveThirtyEight has, on average, been more accurate than me in the elections that we have both released projections for, which is 19 out of 32 states. I have published projections for 29 of the Democratic primaries/caucuses (I started after Nevada), and FiveThirtyEight has published projected results for 22.
  • FiveThirtyEight’s overall average error for the contests that they publish projections for is 3.2%, and their median error is 2.6%. My average error is 5.8% and my median error is 5.3%. I have only been closer than FiveThirtyEight in seven contests, whereas they have been closer than me twelve times. See the following graph to visualize this.

Screen Shot 2016-04-06 at 2.49.38 PM.png

  • As for calling wins and losses correctly: For Missouri and Illinois, FiveThirtyEight projected Hillary to win, and I was projecting her to lose. FiveThirtyEight was correct both of those times. On the flip side, in Michigan and Oklahoma I projected Bernie to win, and FiveThirtyEight was projecting him to lose. Bernie won both of those. In Minnesota and Arizona, FiveThirtyEight didn’t publish any projections that I’m aware of.
  • If you wish to recreate these numbers yourself, keep in mind that I publish projections for the two candidates excluding votes for other candidates. This means that my projections between Hillary and Bernie always add up to 100. FiveThirtyEight publishes projections based on polling, so that necessarily includes votes for other candidates. Thus, my projections must be measured against the results after adjusting them to the aforementioned scale (=100/(BernieVote + HillaryVote)*BernieVote), while FiveThirtyEight’s can be compared outright.
  • I have underestimated Bernie Sanders overall. The sum of all of my errors (AdjBernieResult – MyBernieProjection) is 1.4. The sum of all of the absolute values of my errors is 174.1. See the graph below (excludes the first three states because I started publishing results after Nevada). The x-axis denotes the contest number, i.e. Iowa would be 1, New Hampshire 2, and so on.

Screen Shot 2016-04-06 at 2.47.09 PM.png

So if I’m doing worse overall, why are my projections valuable?

I think my work is worth something. Maybe you don’t, and that’s perfectly fine. However, I know that I would want to get an idea of what would happen in some states when Nate hasn’t been able to publish any projections, and that has happened eleven times so far (mostly in caucus states). Let me be clear that it’s through no fault of FiveThirtyEight when they don’t publish projections, and they would likely publish projections for every state if there was always enough recent polling data, but that’s not always the case.

This is, in my opinion, the beauty of using the data sources I’m using. There is zero reliance on polls. Not that polls are a bad thing, because FiveThirtyEight demonstrates that enough polling data is an extremely powerful predictor all the time (See their Ohio, Vermont, Georgia, Virginia estimates all within one point of the result(!)). But, once again, polling isn’t always performed everywhere, and that’s where I think my work has the most value. Obviously my work isn’t particularly great all the time and I’ve had some major misses, but it’s still pretty cool to be in the infancy of this new methodology. I’m confident that this approach will become the new standard for political forecasting in the future and replace polling as the primary data source for predicting elections, and until then I will continue to refine my work to produce better results. Thank you everyone for the interest in what I do.

-Tyler

WISCONSIN PRIMARY: FINAL FORECAST

Hello everyone,

Bernie Sanders seems to have maintained about the same projected lead as indicated in my previous post. Recent polling, the Benchmark Politics’ benchmark, and the FiveThirtyEight projection seem to corroborate this. Here is my final estimate:

Screen Shot 2016-04-04 at 6.21.48 PM

This is a particularly strong number, because Hillary Clinton has generally done much better in the open primary format, with the exception of Vermont and Michigan (though Michigan may as well have been a tie). Still, the demographics of Wisconsin favor Bernie more than Hillary, with an 83.3% non-Hispanic White, and 6.3% Black population. If the above numbers are accurate, this would produce a delegate allocation of 35 for Clinton, and 51 for Sanders.

However, it has been reported that there has been a record breaking number of early voting in the last two weeks in Wisconsin. This has strongly favored Hillary in previous contests, and it stands to reason that it will likely hold true in Wisconsin as well. For this reason I expect Hillary’s vote share to be slightly higher than the above number (10:11 PM edit: A recent Emerson poll shows Clinton trailing Sanders in early voting 38% to 52% which seems to indicate the opposite is true).

-Tyler