DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTION: INDIANA

I’m only aware of one other outlet that is projecting a Clinton loss tomorrow in Indiana. Though Bernie Sanders has scaled back spending in Indiana, Hillary has cut all spending from states that have yet to vote in the Democratic primaries, presumably to save funding for the general election campaign against Trump (edgy assumption, I know). This Clinton spending cut seems to be showing up in the Google Trends data for Indiana, as Bernie has seemed to have drastically increased his search interest relative to Hillary. Here are my estimates for what we will see tomorrow night:

Screen Shot 2016-05-02 at 8.01.28 PM

Something about this projection doesn’t feel very right to me, though I suppose this concern is rooted in the surprisingly consistent polling results showing Hillary with a win. Despite this, every different configuration of my model, six total, is showing a Bernie win in Indiana. I have devoted quite a bit of time over this past week trying to see if it was possible to generate a different result, but it just wasn’t possible within my framework. Perhaps Hillary will win, and perhaps Hillary will lose, but regardless, I do think it will be very close.

There doesn’t seem to be any particular factor within all of my data that is significantly driving this result, though if I had to choose one I suppose it would be his slightly higher-than-average share of Facebook likes within the state, 78.5%, similar to Michigan (80.0%), Kansas (78.5%), Illinois (76.1%), and Missouri (76.9%). The Republican open primary that is being held tomorrow in Indiana will help Hillary by stealing independents that would’ve voted for Bernie, likely by around 0.4% (already factored into the above projection).

Michigan is perhaps the best analogue for Indiana. The Facebook data is very similar, and they are both open primaries. I believe that both have also had a minimal amount of early voting. One somewhat stark difference between the two states are the respective portions of the populations that are African American, with Michigan at 14.2% and Indiana at 9.4%, so Bernie should gain an advantage over Michigan in this respect. However, in Michigan, Bernie had a higher relative search interest measure (from Google Trends), about 14% higher. Bernie also had a higher number of individual campaign contributions in Michigan compared to Indiana; where he had about 1.56 times more <$200 contributions than Hillary in Michigan, and only 1.31 times more <$200 contributions in Indiana.

Thanks for the interest everyone, and happy voting to all you Hoosiers!

-Tyler

As you all know, I’m just a poor graduate student. If you would like to support my work and want me to be able to afford Top Ramen (or maybe even pizza if you all are extraordinarily generous) while I’m working on these statistics, please click this link to donate to Tyler’s Food & Rent Fund!

(edit: Also, if you are an employer in the DC area and have an open position, I need a summer job! Please contact me if you think I would be a good fit for your organization. Paid positions only, please.)

74 thoughts on “DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTION: INDIANA

  1. Tyler,

    Way to go. Spot on. That’s fantastic to see. I’m curious if you can shed more light on the six different configurations of your model you mention. How varied are the results of each, and what line of information does each configuration depend on more for its numbers?

    I know you tend to tweak your model after each primary comes and goes — did you alter anything between this primary and the April 26 numbers? Just curious.

    Again, fantastic work. Couldn’t have been more accurate. Keep it up.

    Best,
    Evan

    Like

  2. Two things, Tyler.
    1. As for Trump being self-funding. He can loan his campaign money from his personal wealth and then pay himself back through campaign funds. So the SuperPAC would be his way of getting a bunch of people to help him get the preznitzy without it costing him a dime.
    2. A lovely piece of prediction on your part (re: Indiana). I am very much impressed.

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  3. I’m curious to see if there will be a change in some of independent votes now that Cruz & Kasich have dropped out. As in, will the ones that were trying to stop Trump move over to the Democratic side & support Bernie?

    Can’t wait to see your projections for the next few primaries/caucuses!

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  4. Amazing work! (Hoping you find something in the DC area this summer!) I’m sure being in DC right now must be pretty exciting — these are some crazy times we’re living in!

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  5. Damn dude, you gotta be more confident with your projections, that was basically dead-on! Congrats, and can’t wait for West Virginia, Kentucky & Oregon projections!

    Liked by 1 person

    • Sorry but the anti-Christ title already belongs to Lyin’ Ted aka Zodiac Killer aka Son of a Lee Harvey Oswald Collaborator aka Lucifer in the Flesh. 😀

      Like

  6. Tyler you are amazing!! I wish TYT would have you on as a special correspondent for the rest of this primary and the general! It would be great to hear all your predictions on air! I know you just do this for fun but your predictions are just getting more and more accurate! I’m blown away!!

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Amazing work Tyler. You checked the numbers several different ways and they all said came up in agreement. End result – with 94% reporting, it’s Bernie 52.5% to 47.5%. How much did you miss by? Out of state with over 633,000 votes cast, you missed by 319 votes! Wow.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Yay Tyler! You are on your way to becoming a rich and famous guy for what you’ve accomplished here! Thanks so much!!

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  8. Second post on this site. I ask both sides of the Democratic Party – Bernie and Hillary supporters alike, can we tone it down? This hate speech I see on the comment thread looks like the one on Fox News. Let the election run its course, defend your candidate without weakening the other, and in June we’ll see who gets the nomination and begin unifying OUR party. No disrespect for anyone here. I don’t think Tyler’s board merits some of these comments. Please take this site seriously.

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    • When HRC trolls start spamming with Child Porn to attack Bernie sites, there is no more respect, I will be ecstatic to see HRC’s campaign reduced to a smoldering wreck.

      As much as I hate Trump, I hate HRC more now, better Trump wins than HRC.

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  9. Four probabilities that will result in a second Hillary Clinton failure to be nominated\inaugurated was viewed on 4/25 and still remains valid-
    http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/04/25/bernie-sanders-wont-drop-out-heres-why/print/
    1./ Hillary’s personal health is very poor- Uncommon arterial disease and hypothyroidism do not respond well to us political campaigns, circa 2016, or being a leader of an oligarchy just coming into lite-
    2./ FBI Criminal Investigation into security violations with home grown sos email server results in a criminal indictment-
    3./ Hidden purposes of donations to Clinton Foundation and actions taken by sos are brought to light; Saudi Arabia and Boeing come to mind-
    http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/05/hillary-clinton-foundation-state-arms-deals
    4./ Hillary’s Wall Street speeches, for which she received millions of dollars in compensation, are leaked. Refusal to release texts is confirmation of politically radioactive content- Sanders releasing tax returns is a tactic that is attempting to lure them out, but has yet to result in exposure which is further confirmation of radioactive content-

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    • Your post is entirely made up of far-right fabrications and lies. Wherever you are getting this false information from needs to be deleted from your browser history. HRC is healthy and will not be indicted for a thing. You are even wrong about Sanders’ tax returns…he still hasn’t released them from previous years. Now…go read about Sanders despicable vote against the Sierra Blanca community of poor Hispanics. Then take a deep breath and realize that it’s time to stand with her. The fantasies are over and HRC will be POTUS.

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      • There is a lot more to that Sierra Blanca vote, even the officials from Texas voted for that Bill. It’s complex.

        Secondly, Hillary IS under FBI criminal investigation. Due to our crony system, she probably won’t get indicted, true, but not because she shouldn’t be.

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      • Thank you David Brock, Machiavellian mastermind of “Correct the Record,” Clinton’s superpac. Does anyone remember that this very same David Brock helped to bring down feminist icon Anita Hill, whose fall paved the way for the most one of the most regressive, spiteful Supreme Court Justices in history, Clarence Thomas, to be confirmed to the Court? That the Clintons would hire and work so closely with such a person speaks volumes as to their lack of integrity, not that there isn’t enough condemning data already. Stop telling people here and elsewhere that it’s time to “stand with her.” Millions of us have no intention of doing so, and please don’t try to scare up support for her by invoking the specter of Donald Trump. You all know that Sanders and his supporters have not been treated remotely fairly by the MSM or DNC, so don’t expect your pleas and propaganda to work.

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      • Why did Bill Clinton sign the Nuclear Waste Bill into law if it was so horrible? PS – Nothing was dumped in Sierra Blanca. Why don’t you know this information?

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  10. Pingback: Links 5/3/16 | naked capitalism

  11. Hillary Clinton is a fraud and I know that she isn’t really getting that amount of votes. It’s rigged, she has 0 support from anyone I know and nobody wants to her to be president. She is a huge criminal and she is getting LOTS of help from Soros/Rothschild and many many others.

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    • Weird… everyone I know is a supporter of hers,Trump makes them vomit and very few ever mention Bernie’s irrelevant behind. There’s actually a world outside Twitter and Reddit where people like her you know that? Thats why she’s 3.2 million voters ahead. Keep crying voter fraud and voter suppression lol. Sour grape losers.

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      • An obvious Hillbot, paid by Correct the Record to come here and shame Sanders supporters. Well, it’s not going to work. Most people do not respond well to shaming and berating dictums from propaganda machines.

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  12. Very happy with the projections this week Tyler, thanks for the good work!

    As a side note, isn’t it illegal to use funds raised during a primary election to campaign in the general? of course, we are talking about the Clintons….

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    • No it is not. The whole Sanders smear from the other day was quickly debunked. The Victory Fund gave the money to the DNC and the DNC will give it out to the down-ballot candidates where they see it making the best impact. The whole thing was a lie that Sanders knew and chose to repeat. It is also perfectly fine to keep money from the primary to hold for the GE.

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  13. Pingback: Tyler Pedigo Projection in Indiana: Bernie 52% Hillary 47% | Bernie Sanders

  14. “Something doesn’t feel right” is probably the possibility of vote rigging again. Perhaps the count will again will be interfered with and Hillary will miraculously win by 10 points. Any Bernie victory at this point is due to the fact that somehow the machines or the vote count process resisted all efforts of manipulation in favor of Hillary. We’ll find out tomorrow.

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    • So if Clinton does win by a small amount, say 1 to 2%, it’s rigged? Give me a break! He gave it a valiant try, but it’s time to move on. These little state wins are not near enough to even put a dent in her lead. Even if he wins, they will split the votes anyway and he will be no further ahead.

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    • Just…stop…there is no vote rigging going on. All of the elections have been on the level and HRC has a 289 pledged delegate lead and 3.2 million more votes than Sanders. The people have spoken up loud and clear…HRC is the real revolution. It is time to stand with her.

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  15. Even though it’s unfeasible for Sanders to win the nomination, I could see how Indiana could give him a narrow win. It’s an Open primary, and Sanders tends to do very well with left leaning Independents.

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    • No, it’s no unfeasible at all. It’s just a narrower path but he’s heading into very favorable territory now! YAY!

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      • He’d have to make Clinton unviable in Oregon and the remaining mountain states to have any remote chance at the nomination. Narrow is an understatement.

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      • Please specify the details of your narrow path. He wins a few small states here and there, but gets demolished in the larger states. NJ and California are coming up quickly and he needs to move the polls there more than 65 percentage points to even tie her number of delegates! In other words, due to the nature of the spliting of delegates in the Democratic primaries, he has to shut her out completely to gain on her. Please tell me how us that possible? He has not done it so far, and there is no indication that he will do it in the near future! Not one single word from him this week. I think he has gone into hibernation!

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      • Sanders will lose Guam, the Virgin Islands, New Jersey, New Mexico, maybe IN, maybe KY and she is leading in CA by 19 points in the latest poll. Sanders needs to win 65% of the remaining contests and when he doesn’t win 65% in any of them then it means he needs to win 70% and then 75% of what’s left. It is over and it is time to stand with her.

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  16. I think by now indies and dems have decided who they are going to vote for and we shouldn’t see a fluctuation in votes in open primaries in the remaining states. I use RI as an example to how well Sanders did despite that Republicans were also having their primary at the same time.

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    • Well, the idea is that when both parties have open primaries that coincide, the Republicans take more independents that would have voted for Bernie if the Republican’s election was a closed primary. It’s actually a pretty interesting effect, and it’s one that I expect to continue to hold true.

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      • I mean it’s certainly possible, but after spending Friday doing an analysis of all open primaries that have coincided this year, it negatively affects Bernie. I suppose that effect could change, though I have no reason to believe that it will.

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      • I did some research into the Independent voter effect and I’m not sure it can necessarily be chalked up to that. Independent voters turnout more when the ratio of Independents to Democrats is higher. Amongst other factors this holds true across most states with open primaries so far. Its why he got such little independent turnout in IL with 21% and why he got a whopping 33% and 40% from MA and NH respectively. NE is not very partisan and I suspect its why he did so well in RI despite not having exit poll data. I’m no data wizard but I made a model to try and project independent turnout and it gives 27% turnout in Indiana same as Michigan and Oklahoma.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Yes- Especially once the general is codified- (pretty interesting effect)

        IMHO, this is a wily tactic because those independents see the fracture in the GOP lockstep caused by Trump, and they see the same DNC fracture, only less so with Bernie, mostly because HRC is in the way, and DNC didn’t just recently have their asses handed to them by a “tea party” insurgence, RNC did-

        Incredibly interesting period to witness US political life events; in a natural death throes act, necessary to birth a new, which is happening n o w-

        I would knot want to be on the side that is resisting the natural death throe; that is for sure-

        Like

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