FINAL PROJECTIONS: APRIL 26th DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

At the beginning of April, when I posted the April outlook, I had initially believed that Bernie Sanders would be able to make enough progress to at least secure two to three victories on April 26th. For whatever reason, it seems as though Hillary has been able to prevent much of this progress from being made in a majority of the states that have elections tomorrow. Bernie has picked up a few tenths of a point in both Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, while losing support in Connecticut, Delaware, and Maryland. Here are my final projections:

Screen Shot 2016-04-25 at 9.37.55 PM

I am estimating a single Hillary loss in the state of Rhode Island, though with a margin of only 6.4%. This close margin leads me to believe that it could still be a toss up. The estimated margin of the Bernie loss in Connecticut is about the same, 6.2%, and the estimated margin of the Hillary victory in Pennsylvania is 9.4%. If these margins hold true, this will produce a sixty delegate surplus for Clinton. Furthermore, if Bernie loses four or five of these states, I suspect he may drop out of the race. An additional sixty delegate deficit tomorrow will only strengthen the perception that obtaining the nomination is essentially impossible for him at this point.

-Tyler

33 thoughts on “FINAL PROJECTIONS: APRIL 26th DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES

  1. Wow, Tyler, excellent work. Very sad to see those numbers be true for Bernie’s sake, but very pleased to see your model proving itself more and more. Please keep it up.

    Also, ignore anyone advising you to quit it with political commentary or analysis. That’s also one of your interests, and this is your gig. Do your thing.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Well, that was depressing. But we expected it. Sure enough, he took Rhode Island, an OPEN primary. If these were all open contests, I wonder what would have happened. The results would have been much better. I don’t know if it would have gotten him the nomination, but maybe close. He seems to carry 3/4 of the independent vote.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. As a great statistician you know that Hillary won’t be getting the 65 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination..2,383 pledged delegates…can’t happen. Just keep doing the great job with the numbers and don’t become a pundit..we have enough of those..he is not dropping out..he is taking it to the convention. #bernieorbust

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Wow Congratz Tyler. These projections are correct down to like 1 or 2%. This is really showing how much your model has improved in this season.

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  5. I don’t understand those telling Tyler he can’t add political analysis into his projections. If anyone on this board has the insights to make such a projection, that would be Tyler. The team over at 538 do the same as they are crunching the numbers and analyzing all data and polls. If you don’t agree with his projections that are based IF the results come in as stated above that’s fine but he has every right such as everyone else who posts on this board, whether they favor Bernie or Hillary. He also understands the delegate math better than most and he was being realistic not idealistic. The system indeed needs to change but you can’t change it at this point when most states have voted. Both candidates knew the system from the beginning, the most loyal Bernie supporters not so much. The most loyal Clinton supporters learned this the hard way in 2008. But this election is not like 2008 and the PUMAS had no effect in Obama losing support. At the end, I hope we can all come together to defeat the Republicans in November. I honestly like both Hillary and Bernie, both are much better candidates than what the GOP offers and I will happily vote for the one that wins at the end. Can we come together with insulting each other? (Please keep in mind this is my first time posting a comment even though I’ve been following Tyler for a while now – so don’t take my post in a wrong way)

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  6. Well, he’s not going to drop out. He has said that he wants to go to the convention with as many delegates as possible and won’t be dropping out.

    If these primaries were open primaries, Bernie would be a lot closer to her. It’s too bad. I want to see him win California at least. Based on the numbers, he absolutely can. He’s very competitive with Latino voters, which tells you Southern California is in play. Plus, his independents can come out for him.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Never seen comments like Craig’s on this site before. Seems to me HRC “correct the record” bullshit team is out in full force. TYT is the ONLY trustable network. Stand with her if you’re comfortable standing with evil it self. Hillary represents everything that is wrong with this country and is running on manipulation and name recognition alone.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Yeah…you really don’t know HRC at all. My guess is that you are under 30 and have been programmed to believe the negativity around HRC from all of the far-right crap you have been inundated with over the years. No worries…but you should know that TYT is a total sham and they are basically a joke to all intelligent beings. As you grow up you realize how they twist and lie…and Cenk is the worst.

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      • Hey Craig, We all KNOW Hillary. Years and years worth of knowledge. I am 53 years old and REMEMBER a lot of the crappy things she has said and been involved in. Go back to your cave and collect your payment from HC fund. Maybe there is a brain cell somewhere in your head that has some kind of moral tendency. You are the joke to intelligent beings and that’s why the joke is on you. We believe that things need to be changed and yeah, there are a lot of intelligent people who are prepared to bring forth an aggressive agenda of change that is sorely needed in this country. Mainstream media is the sham, but I forgot you drink the koolaid.

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    • I agree with you Jack. I recognize the pattern of comments like: “Everyone will cry and get over his loss and vote for HRC,” and – I paraphrase here – you must be a kid who has fallen for all the right-wing propaganda if you don’t know how great she is; and then the all too familiar: “it’s time to stand with her.” These are all familiar memes from David Brock’s newly hired Hillbots, who are swarming the Internet like locusts in an effort not only to defeat, but also to dishonor and destroy Bernie. It’s pathetic and disrespectful, and a sorry sight to witness in all of its corruption and manipulation.

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  8. Hi Tyler, I appreciate all the work you do here and find your predictions particularly valuable.

    Even if Bernie goes 0 for 5, there is no way he is dropping out of the race prior to the convention.

    Liked by 1 person

  9. Unfortunately this seems to indeed be the case. Pennsylvania’s central areas bear more in similarity with the rural south in terms of voting patterns than with upstate New York’s rural areas. Pennsyltucky, after all.

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  10. Friendly advice: Stick to the numbers and statistics and don’t introduce political analysis into your projections.

    For instance, realizing that Bernie is going to win 100% of the remaining delegates in an amazing political revolution and take the nomination!!

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    • ARG is a terrible pollster. They have been inaccurate and generally way under what HRC ends up delivering. HRC should be set to win DE by 10-15 points, MD by about 30 points, PA by about 10-15 points and CT by about 10 points. RI is going to be close either way, but benchmark politics has HRC winning by 6 points for a clean sweep. It is time to stand with her.

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      • It wasn’t ARG, it was Gravis. I think he’ll lose DE by more though.

        Anyway, I think you will be surprised how many are #BernieorBust. Bernie is a better GE candidate because of this and he gets many independents that Hillary will not, check the polls, he has been doing better against all the Republican candidates for months. On top of that she is likely to be indicted. Great candidate…

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      • “She is winning, therefore stand with her.” Sounds silly to me. Stand with whoever you believe is best for this country, and I don’t believe someone as shady as her is a good choice. Also, what would it look like for the Democratic nominee to be indicted while running for president? God, our country will be the laughing stock of the world.

        Liked by 1 person

    • Right Gravis…they are just as bad as ARG. Anyone who says HRC is going to be indicted is naive. Don’t get your news from Abramson, Goodman, TYT or USUNCUT. They are all lying to you for clickbait and to tell the narrative they want to tell rather than what is actually going on.

      As for the GE polls…30 seconds of research can tell you that GE polls this far out are meaningless. In fact, at this point in 2008 HRC was up by 7 points on Obama. The PUMAs were much worse than the Bernieorbust crowd. Everyone will cry and get over his loss and vote for HRC. She will crush the GOP in the GE because she is a good candidate, the map is favorable and the GOP candidates are terrible.

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      • One has to wonder how much Correct the Record is paying you to come here to shill for Hillary. Whatever it is, they’re not going to get a return on their investment for these kinds of insulting comments.

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      • Right Craig. We are fighting on against income inequality. And it ain’t over yet, buddy. We’ll see you at the convention AND the other side of an indictment. Strange that you declare that you are so realistic and pragmatic…. in the real world if any other governmental employee did what she did they would be convicted. Dream on….. Bernie or Bust for me.

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      • I’m giving him advice. If he wants to turn his work into political punditry then so be it. But he should definitely follow my advice and not give in to shitposts like yours.

        You, who are so gleeful about about calling other names, are the kind of person that almost shut this website down in after March 15 and 22.

        Like

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