FINAL PROJECTION: NEW YORK DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

A few weeks ago, I posted an outlook for all of the April Democratic primaries. This outlook included my initial estimate for the New York primary, showing Bernie Sanders at 38.8% in the Empire State. We are all aware that both candidates have been campaigning relentlessly in New York, and for that reason I didn’t believe that the needle would really move much from the initial estimate. This assumption of mine is based on the concept of “dynamic equilibrium” that I learned about in my Political Science senior seminar during my undergrad, from a book called The Gamble that covered the 2012 general election. The idea is that, if both candidates are campaigning with approximately the same vigor and intensity in a state, they will both likely get about the same amount of media coverage there, capture the same number of votes in that time frame, etc. It’s a useful way to think about elections. Anyways, it does appear that Hillary Clinton has lost a very small amount of ground compared to my original estimate. Here are my final numbers for New York:

Screen Shot 2016-04-18 at 6.22.46 PM

I am expecting Bernie to do a couple of points better than the original outlook for a couple of reasons. First, his Facebook presence has become barely more favorable than it was, settling out at 70.00% of Democrat likes. This is similar to Virginia (70.37%), Florida (69.56%), and Iowa (71.87%). Secondly, his relative search interest on Google is decent; with the three day relative average coming in at about 2.05-2.1. This is in the ballpark of Illinois (2.05), Oklahoma (1.98), and Nebraska (2.02). The demographic makeup of the state, as well as the closed primary contest format still remain the greatest hurdle to any good Sanders performance in New York.

I am somewhat inclined to believe that New York’s unique primary rules will alter the results of tomorrow’s primary more in favor of Hillary. To vote in the Democratic primary, voters had to have been registered a Democrat by the end of 2015. My belief is that this will most certainly disproportionately affect Sanders supporters. A good friend of mine refers to the New York primary as the most closed primary of the season, and it will be interesting to see if that setup produces results that vary widely from the above projection. Thanks for reading.

-Tyler

76 thoughts on “FINAL PROJECTION: NEW YORK DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

  1. Thank you so much Tyler! I was so hoping your model wouldn’t work last night, and that somehow Bernie would pull off another Michigan (which you rightfully predicted!), but am so impressed by and appreciative of what you do here.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. It looks like it’s going to settle around at around a 15 point win for Hillary. My own prediction was 14 points. 14, 15, it’s too many. He now has to perform extremely well next week…

    Like

  3. Three points:

    1. To the people with all the neener-neener childish bullshit: just shut up. Shut your stupid, worthless mouths. You think Clinton’s the better candidate? Fine. You think Sanders is the better candidate? Great. But DO NOT TURN THIS INTO YOUR SOPHOMORIC ASSHOLE CONVENTION. You want to argue from an informed position? That’s great. But if you can’t do it like an adult, keep your goddamned fingers away from your keyboards and smartphones. Because we no longer have the luxury of tolerating your idiotic shenanigans. No. Don’t. Just stop digging the hole. Act like an adult. For 10 minutes, act like an adult and don’t retort with your juvenile vomitus.

    2. I have been keeping pretty careful count. I see a stunning LACK of presence by the Hillary Clinton side. I see Bernie stickers, Bernie stencils on the sidewalks, Bernie phone calls, Bernie buttons. I have seen ONE Hillary button. Two Hillary stickers. No phone calls. No ADS on the television. Tyler, does any of that factor in? Why did I see THREE separate Bernie campaign groups today in New York, and I’ve never seen a group for Hillary?

    3. Clinton has real problems coming in the general election (if she wins the nomination). She is, fundamentally, an unlikable, untrusted candidate. Her actual accomplishments (voting in favor of a bill that everyone’s in agreement with doesn’t count as an accomplishment) are scant. Everyone talks about how she’s been “vetted” and “battle-tested.” I’m sorry, but you people saying that have literally not one clue what you’re talking about. Almost every job Clinton has ever had has been an appointed position. The Republicans would have less dirt to fling at an opponent who was a practicing Satanist who’d served time in jail for child-murder and bad checks. The one election Clinton ever won to gain an office was against Rick Lazio, a political nobody, and she had to spend tens of millions to beat him. She should have blown him out of the water by 40 percent, but she got something like 14% more than he did. The Republicans will win this something like 40 states to 10 because no one on their side is going to be polite like Sanders. No one is going to talk about “issues.” It will simply be a continuous stream of “e-mail server, Bengazi, why did she attack the women accusing Bill Clinton of sexual assault,” and so forth. Her political life reads like a bad soap opera.

    The Republicans haven’t attacked her yet because they know they can beat her. They don’t know that they can beat Sanders, so they’ve backpedaled on him. A charge of “socialist”? Most of Sanders’ supporters will laugh. To them, it will be like accusing Paul Lynde of being gay.

    4. Tyler. Sorry for the rant. but I am sick of people just picking on you like you’re some sort of deranged maniac because you can’t hit every target exactly right. You keep doing what you’re doing.

    Like

    • This is by far the most childish and uninformed comment I have ever seen posted on Tyler’s page. Arguing against all available data on a data analysis blog but accusing other of being uniformed. how cute.

      Like

    • She won two senate elections, but yes, it was like shooting fish in a barrel. It wasn’t impressive. Her electoral career is anything but impressive.

      I agree with you that trotting out the Red Scare isn’t going to work against Bernie. They tried this on Obama and he crushed McCain by this century’s hyperpartisan’s standards. Sure, they’ve got more overt stuff to throw at Bernie, but Bernie’s going to bring out the base in a big way. As a New Deal Democrat with positions straight down the middle of the country, I don’t see how he’s unelectable. Against Trump or Cruz, it would be a decisive win. Kasich is the only one I’d lose sleep running against.

      But, I don’t know that we’re getting to that stage of things. My prediction is that Clinton wins big tonight. Double digits. In that event, the ground he made up this month will have been seriously diminished and I am not sure what the path forward is from there.

      Like

    • Tyler, I think you polling technique is going to be a big part of the future. People Statistics can be challenging, but I think since you adjusted your model over time, you are onto something. Just remember in elections and sports… You start off with 50% of those reading your analysis angry or annoyed… Sort of the situation umpires and referees encounter… Keep up the good work, no matter what, even people unhappy with their “teams” numbers, they’ll come back if you’re honest and close.

      Like

    • I think you really don’t understand anything about politics or anything about HRC. She spent what she needed to spend in NY which is why you saw so much Sanders stuff around. He outspent her by almost $3 million and got very little return on his investment. HRC has more cash on hand whole Sanders has a very high burn-rate. She is keeping cash for the general election because the GOP will have lots of money. HRC will with the general election and she is a lot more liked than you give her credit for. The electoral map favors the Dems, Trump or Cruz are horrible candidates and HRC is very strong in critical swing states such as OH, WI, IA, CO, FL and NC. She will likely garner over 300 electoral votes. All of the stuff you mention about HRC are right wing lies and smears. They hate HRC because she is a smart woman and the GOP in general hates woman. They have been making up lies about her or twisting reality for 25 years with nothing…that is why she is battle-tested. They will trot out the same lies they always have because that’s all they have and she will easily brush them off. If you are under 30, and I believe you are, then you are a prime candidate for why millenials don’t get HRC yet. You have been raised your whole life with this garbage coming from the right about her. It’s all a bunch of lies and they have been trying to pre-condition you to it. You probably think Bill Clinton was a bad POTUS, right? Bill was great! He created 26 million jobs, balanced the budge and actually had a budget surplus!!! You just don’t know this because you grew up with sound bites from Drudge telling you otherwise. these are the same soundbites that Goodman, Abramson, TYT and USUncut use…GOP lies. They are as bad as the PUMA’s from 2008. If you don’t know who they are then you should look them up. Everybody gets upset but they all come together at the end. The end is now. It is time to stand with her.

      Like

  4. Every percentage point above 40% is frankly a miracle for Bernie. When his campaign said he’d be campaigning here like a governor, I was hoping for high profile visits to the projects but that came only yesterday, way too late to make a dent in public perception.

    Like

  5. There will definitely be a few of his angry crazy mentally unstable gullible minions flying off the Brooklyn bridge when he loses…oh well..

    Like

      • See…this is just not true. Nothing will come of it because she isn;t guilty of anything. Anyone who says otherwise is lying to you. This is a Drudge/GOP smear tactic that Sanders people have taken up. This must stop. Goodman is wrong. Goodman was backing Rand Paul last year. Goodman wants twitter followers because he was irrelevant before all of this. Goodman writes for the far-right rag The Hill. Bad source of information.

        Like

    • Nice, supposed “liberal” democrat joking about people committing suicide? I guess that’s why you support Hillary, she is for the death penalty after all. Remember when she told that man who’d been on death row for 30 years and was exonerated that the death penalty is necessary? Gee, what a caring, progressive candidate you support.

      Like

    • And then on November 8th, 2016 HRC will get slaughtered by Trump

      And we’ll say, “don’t blame us, we told you to nominate Sanders”

      Like

      • For you to think that Hillary would lose to any g.o.p. nominee is a joke!! Hilary is vetted and battle tested, and if bernie were to steal OUR Democratic nomination the republicans would start to attack him as the “communist”, boogie man coming after our paychecks to pay for his unrealistic plan…so, WE will nominate the ONLY TRUE Democrat and retain the White House in November…Invitations,to OUR Inauguration, will not be sent to bern-out-bots!

        Like

      • No candidate with a negative approval rating has ever won the White House..which is why the R’s will not nominate Trump (-35) and the Dems will not nominate Hillary (-24) ..survival is what they care about most.

        Like

  6. I think an 8-10 point loss would be reasonable. 20 would be very disappointing. Less than 8 would be good (for Bernie and therefore me).

    This is mainly based on the polls, Bernie’s track record of overperforming them, the level of outreach that has existed, and my hunch as someone who grew up in NY.

    Like

    • There has been no real outreach in NY though. It is a very closed primary that you needed to switch parties to Dem by October 9th. Only 15,000 new Dems were registered in NY since last year…that is a very bad sign for Sanders. Demographics have been the #1 predictor in the Dem race and NY is a great state for HRC and a terrible state for Sanders. HRC has been winning AA, Hispanics and Jews by tremendous margins…not good for Sanders in NY. Sanders doesn’t outperform his polls any more than HRC does (they are literally even). Sanders does better in white liberal states…which is not NY. The myth that Sanders does better whn turnout is high is not true. Sanders does better when turnout is low…like in caucus states (which disenfranchise HRC voters more). If all of the caucuses were primaries Sanders would be losing by an even larger amount. When HRC wins NY…and she will…it is time for Sanders to change his rhetoric, as it will be almost impossible for him to get to 2026. It is time to stand with her.

      Like

      • No outreach in NY? It’s been unimaginably relentless, with countless volunteers in different teams working behind the scenes, around the clock.

        Like

      • There are strong signs Sanders has increased with Hispanic voters in NY. Both in polls, and in the update to the Facebook Primary which showed an increase for Bernie likes in the most hispanic parts of the Bronx

        Like

  7. A quick perusal of your comments show why Bernie is losing by over 2 million votes. You’re all white and young! The old man is going down and when he does I’ll throw twenty seven dollar bills in his face, the mysoginistic lying old SOB!

    Liked by 2 people

  8. Have you considered the lack of early voting? And what if the courts rule in favor of counting independent provisional ballots?

    Like

  9. Tyler, With respect, Please consider using “grammarly.com.” The use of the passive voice while making important points undercuts your power. Grammarly is free and functions as an instant, ubiquitous electronic editor. More power is better. JT

    Liked by 2 people

  10. Haha. If she wins by 20 points in New York, that’s it. He can win California based on what we know now, but he is not going to blow it out and makeup such a gap. If he loses by double digits tomorrow, I can’t see a path.

    I was hoping he would fight her into the single digits. Some of the polling, the ones that include cell-phones, show him within 10 points or less.

    Like

    • maybe because Emerson just adjusted their model after they figured out why they were missing by so much, publicly available information if you had done any research.

      Like

  11. I believe you will be way off on this one. Since Sanders has been over performing in most states when it comes to polls I’m wondering why you think he will under perform in NY? Also with the polls showing him closer than those in Michigan why take the leap there with your prediction but not in NY where his momentum seems much greater? Recent poll put him up by a point (50-49) in Upstate NY…so according to your prediction he would have to lose NYC by a huge landslide margin…not sure that is possible. Also last statewide poll had him down by 6 in NY.. I think you could be off by 20-30 points..hope so.

    Like

    • Over performing in tiny cacauses, liberal north-west open primaries, RED western states, and a mis-polled Michigan, yes I totally agree.

      BUT, these North Eastern/Mid-Atlantic States are the Democratic “Big Leagues”. This is where the “Establishment” makes it’s bread and butter… This is true blue Democrat country in VERY closed primaries with multi-hundreds of delegates at stake.

      I honestly, think true blue Democrats a fairly sick of BS at this point… 20 points is about right.

      Like

      • More lies from Hillary lovers. Michigan was a primary..he was down by 22-25 in polls. Wisconsin was a primary, he was up by 2-6 points in polls. The polls have been off to way off and they know it. It’s a multi million dollar business so they keep on going even though they are clueless.

        Like

      • And stop with the “tiny state” bullshit. 80 percent of Hillary’s wins are in the small deep south states with low voter turnout and most of her votes coming from people who never even graduated high school.

        Like

      • Small as in no populations.. Small as on Caucas turnout. Wisconsin and Michigan were open primaries.

        To Mike Cockioppoli below…

        Like

    • are you asking him to ignore data and make predictions that make you happy LOL

      this is honestly hilarious.

      at least i understand why tyler got such a huge following of sycophants now.

      his posts consistently say he DOES NOT USE POLLS and his model is based on SOCIAL MEDIA

      for him to change the results because he didnt like the result would literally make the process as useful as throwing darts

      Like

    • Many things are wrong with your analysis. Sanders and HRC have both outperformed their polling an even number of times. The polls in MI were off because there wasn’t a primary in 2012 or 2008 for the pollsters to get a gauge on the proper mix. Upstate NY is less than 25% of the NY vote. NYC areas will drive the results and HRC is way up with AA, Hispanics, Jews, older people, educated people, wealthy people and people who work in or have a family member working in the financial services industry (1 of 9 Dems in NY). That poll that had him down 6 was from the 13th and more recent polls had the same 12-17 point lead for HRC. Finally, HRC has tended to well in diverse, large, closed primaries…that is NY in a nutshell.

      Like

  12. I was calling New York for Bernie too…, many I spoke to who planned on voting said they switched their choice from Clinton to Sanders within the last 5 days., they also complained of feeling misled by the media in New York.,…Like Bernie said,…”a large voter turn out means he wins,…suppressed voting means he has to work twice as hard to win.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. I’ve been wondering about the Facebook likes thing for a while. Hillary may get a large boost from those because she was the Senator from New York, and her campaign pretty much started out in this state. Granted, likes for Sen. Hillary Clinton and for Hillary’s 2016 Campaign page are two different things.

    As for the demographics, there are a couple of things that the Sanders campaign is doing here that they did not do very seriously in any of the other states. In states such as Florida the campaign was one of the most lackluster efforts I have ever seen. The minority outreach was absolute crap. We sent a grand total of 2 people to the very anti-Clinton Haitian community, for a grand total of 4 hours of canvassing and 2 hours of flyering the next day.

    The Sanders campaign has completely changed their approach in New York. He’s walking around in the poorest parts of the city, making a historic visit to Brownsville, and garnering the support of well-liked local black and Latino leaders like Richie Torres, Jumaane Williams and Evan Smith. They’re even helping him with canvassing efforts in Brooklyn and Queens.

    Lastly, there is the curious case of the 48,000-strong Working Families Party and their on-the-ground guerilla campaign to get the vote out. Subway trains, stations, streets, public transit stops, and shops plastered with pro-Bernie images and even a customized newspaper on the issues being handed out en masse to passing voters.

    Hillary’s primary advantages here are the extant name recognition and the fact that NY’s closed primary system has disenfranchised millions of voters this year alone. 125,000 people registered as Democrats to vote (69% under the age of 30 I think, vast majority for Bernie), but several thousands, possibly tens of thousands are reporting that their voter registration has been purged / their party incorrectly changed. Not to mention that in 2008, New York poll locations flat out corrupted the results, by reporting 0 Obama votes in some of his most strongest precincts in Harlem.

    Sanders will most likely lose New York state. I’m not sure if it will be a massive 20-point blowout, but it may be something like the Nevada result a but a bit larger margin (maybe 53-46), with most of his support coming from upstate, but being nullified by strong Hillary presence in the middle / north Bronx.

    Believe it or not, I actually think Bern may overperform benchmarks in the South Bronx and in Brooklyn – I just don’t think it’ll be by enough to win the state.

    Like

    • also one last thing: Hillary’ search interest increased slightly today in relation to Bernie’s but not for the reason you’d expect.

      The top search query: hillary clinton hot sauce – after she made yet another widely-criticized comment on an interview with Charlemagne tha God, for which many African-Americans panned her for pandering to the black community.

      Like

      • Actually, just from scanning the headlines and the Time article, the hot sauce thing seems like something genuine that she really does (in which case this would be the first instance of a human trait, even if it is pandering to bring it up).

        Like

    • Yes, I think the main reason for Tyler’s result is likes due solely to her being the senator. I believe that there will not be a very strong correlation between those likes and support for her as president. But Tyler only talked about Bernie’s likes and didn’t mention this factor in his post:

      Hey Tyler! Was this a big factor in your results?

      Like

  14. I think NY being one of the most closed primaries will hurt Clinton more than it will hurt Sanders. The reason why I believe this is Clinton relies heavily on early and no-excuse ballot voting which we have seen favor her in just about every state up to NY. Also if I am not mistaken a few states that Clinton has won like IL, NC, AZ and MO was because of early/absentee voting and not because of election day voting in which Sanders won. Also NY is the 2nd largest state for college students after Cali and before Pennsylvania and I believe that will help sanders a lot. I also believe sanders doing well with demographics under 35 will help in NY.

    P.S. Sanders has had his largest rallies to date in NY. Not just young students but people of all ages and races. His rally on Sunday had over 28,000 people. Something tells me Sanders is going to do better in NY than most think.

    Like

    • literally every point you made is objectively wrong.

      1) Your focus on absentee voting is hilarious. Most people who vote absentee are still capable of voting on election day. Not 100% will, but you seem to think they would just disappear lol. The way you bernouts discount absentee votes is disgusting. you are literally arguing for the disenfranchisement of sick/old, disabled, military, working mothers, etc. the privilege. gross.

      2) NY may have a lot of college students, but the voter registration data does not support your theory that it will increase voter turnout. In fact, it suggests the opposite, since we already know how many tens of thousands of college students cant vote because they are not affiliated. that young age group represents 70% of the unaffiliated voters in NY. oops!

      3) College students are both more wealthy and more ambitious to be involved in capitalism than any other state. A huge portion of NYC college students plan to work in finance. You think they will vote for Bernie? His plans would destroy the job market for new hires in banking/finance. Obviously this portion isnt enough for Hillary to win the vote, since some are Republicans, but its enough to make it harder for him to win the demographic by 65 points!

      4) His rally was the biggest in NY for obvious reasons. Manhattan is the largest city in the country, and has by far the largest population that can get to the rally in under 90 minutes via subway or train. I honestly expected over 50k, and thought it was a huge fail. Do you just not realize that Obama had multiple rallies with 50k-100K people? And Obama drew 24K in September 2007 in Washington Square Park in NYC, long before anyone had even voted lol. Official numbers for crowd size per NY police for Bernie’s rally in the same location was only 15K (but they claimed 27K in a press release so apparently thats more accurate than police!)

      Like

  15. Thanks for the update. My instinct is that Bernie will do better than this, based on more him getting more press lately (from debate, rallys, and Vatican visit) than compared to earlier in the campaign season. I also feel like the ethnic voting tendencies might be a little different in NY than in the southern states. However, the ‘very’ closed primary is going to have a strong benefit towards Hillary, so we’ll see how it turns out.

    Liked by 1 person

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s