It’s a bit unsettling to go against the grain with this forecast. As far as I know, every outlet is projecting a Clinton win tomorrow in both Michigan and Mississippi.
The Sanders campaign must be doing something remarkable in Michigan right now, because the upswing in Sanders popularity among my data sources is undeniable. I am seeing levels of interest in Bernie Sanders in Michigan similar to that of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. This, along with Michigan’s relatively normal demographic makeup, leads me to personally believe that he does have a chance. It leads my model to estimate that he will win there. Hillary leads every conventional poll, however, which makes me skeptical of these numbers.
Bernie Sanders will be lucky to get above 20% in Mississippi, but I do believe that if he doesn’t win Michigan, the final results will be very close. Here are the numbers:
My official prediction is that Bernie will win Michigan and Hillary will win Mississippi, but in reality Michigan is too close to call with a mathematical model. Elections culminate in a single number after the movement of hundreds or thousands of variables, and as statisticians we can only select a few of those and hope that we account for as much variance as possible. Given the outcome of all the other elections so far this season, the positions of those variables right now in Michigan seem to indicate that a massive upset will happen tomorrow night.
-Tyler
Tyler Pedigo 
Is there a way for you to take “other” votes into account?
It seems if there was a way to include that in your model that you actually would’ve been spot on for both of these predictions.
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Very impressive Tyler! I’ve been watching you since ST, and have watched you get more and more accurate. I can not wait for your 3/15 predictions.
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I am spreading the word of your prowess!
Keep up the great work, I approve of young people using unconventional methods.
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Amazing call on Michigan, Tyler. When will you be releasing your predictions for the March 15th primaries? Any chance you could email it to me before you release it to the public? For a fee maybe?
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Tyler, that was the call of the decade – the combination of factors you’re modeling right now, and the weights you’re assigning are just perfect! Great job, this is really amazing work.
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You nailed it Ty! Love following your work. Keep it up!
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awesome.
other sites are being asked to “please admit that this is a real movement that is keeping ahead of the polls, and you [are] off guard”, but you–here–well, you nailed it.
thanks. i’ll be back.
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Well done Tyler. Keep em coming
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As far as I can tell, you are literally the only person that predicted this. Good job, that is some impressive political statistics.
Tyler: the new, more accurate Nate.
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Tyler Pedigo for Nate Silver’s Job 2016!
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You were right! Congratulations on predicting the Michigan Primary!
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Can you talk about how your methods were different from everyone else’s, which allowed you to get this right, and also talk a little bit about the future of the race? This is an impressive against-the-grain prediction!
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Congratulations man, nailed the calls. You ought to be proud!
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You have just gained a hell of a lot of clout with me. Great work with these predictions!
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I fell asleep last night thinking of you and hoping you would be correct. Congratulations on your incredible work, I’m smiling so big for you.
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YOU WERE MONEY! Congrats! Going against EVERYONE! You know your stuff.
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Dude, wow! Your predictions are amazing! You were right. I’ll definitely look to your site in the future!
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Holy shit dude, you killed it. Could you enlighten me more on your methods?
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Congrats on calling Michigan correctly (against Nate Silver’s >99% call at that)!
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I hope you’re right about MS – some polls are showing him as non-viable in that state.
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