MICHIGAN, MISSISSIPPI DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTIONS

It’s a bit unsettling to go against the grain with this forecast. As far as I know, every outlet is projecting a Clinton win tomorrow in both Michigan and Mississippi.

The Sanders campaign must be doing something remarkable in Michigan right now, because the upswing in Sanders popularity among my data sources is undeniable. I am seeing levels of interest in Bernie Sanders in Michigan similar to that of Colorado, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. This, along with Michigan’s relatively normal demographic makeup, leads me to personally believe that he does have a chance. It leads my model to estimate that he will win there. Hillary leads every conventional poll, however, which makes me skeptical of these numbers.

Bernie Sanders will be lucky to get above 20% in Mississippi, but I do believe that if he doesn’t win Michigan, the final results will be very close. Here are the numbers:

Screen Shot 2016-03-07 at 11.35.52 PM

My official prediction is that Bernie will win Michigan and Hillary will win Mississippi, but in reality Michigan is too close to call with a mathematical model. Elections culminate in a single number after the movement of hundreds or thousands of variables, and as statisticians we can only select a few of those and hope that we account for as much variance as possible. Given the outcome of all the other elections so far this season, the positions of those variables right now in Michigan seem to indicate that a massive upset will happen tomorrow night.

-Tyler

20 thoughts on “MICHIGAN, MISSISSIPPI DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTIONS

  1. Amazing call on Michigan, Tyler. When will you be releasing your predictions for the March 15th primaries? Any chance you could email it to me before you release it to the public? For a fee maybe?

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  2. awesome.

    other sites are being asked to “please admit that this is a real movement that is keeping ahead of the polls, and you [are] off guard”, but you–here–well, you nailed it.

    thanks. i’ll be back.

    Like

  3. As far as I can tell, you are literally the only person that predicted this. Good job, that is some impressive political statistics.

    Tyler: the new, more accurate Nate.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Can you talk about how your methods were different from everyone else’s, which allowed you to get this right, and also talk a little bit about the future of the race? This is an impressive against-the-grain prediction!

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  5. I fell asleep last night thinking of you and hoping you would be correct. Congratulations on your incredible work, I’m smiling so big for you.

    Like

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