SUPER TUESDAY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY AND CAUCUS PROJECTIONS: REVISED

It has become clear that the social media data that I used in my previous forecast became antiquated quite quickly, due to the relatively large margin between the South Carolina estimate and actual result.

Thanks to a good friend’s tip, I began to utilize data from Google Trends to develop new estimates for Super Tuesday. Looking in retrospect, the correlation between the Google data and results in the first four states is striking once one has massaged the data set to produce usable measures (I use relative search frequency averaged over the couple days prior to the election). Demographics are taken into account as well. The new estimates are as follows:

Screen Shot 2016-03-01 at 12.22.32 AM

This produces an estimated delegate allocation as follows (super-delegates are not included in this table):

Screen Shot 2016-03-01 at 12.27.15 AM

Once we have the data from Super Tuesday, we will all be able to hone the accuracy of our models even further.

-Tyler

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s