DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTIONS: SUPER TUESDAY 2

There is a non-zero chance that Hillary Clinton will have a bad day tomorrow.

My model is estimating two Sanders wins on Tuesday, in Missouri and Illinois. However, Illinois and Ohio are both effectively coin flips with such thin margins between victory and defeat (if you recall, I put Bernie at 53.48% in Michigan and he won by less than 1%, though my model should be more accurate now). It is also estimating two wide victories for Hillary in North Carolina and Florida, which is and has been expected. Here are tomorrow’s projections:

Screen Shot 2016-03-14 at 11.37.02 PM

Only one Bernie win in Missouri will not likely lead to any permanent change in the perception of Hillary being the candidate that is destined to win the nomination. Two upsets will likely change the narrative of the presidential race, and bolster Bernie’s image as a threat to the prospect of Hillary being the Democratic nominee. Three upsets tomorrow will likely transform Bernie from “challenger” status to “probable nominee”status, and I say this because early numbers indicate to me that Bernie will win (at least) the next eight states in a row, all the way until April 19th. If Sanders wins three states tomorrow, this means that in mid-April he will be able to say that he has won eleven of the last thirteen state primaries. That’s some serious momentum.

I’ve also been putting together a GOP model over the past week. Though the model seems to fit previous elections extremely well, the GOP elections are just far too volatile for me to have much confidence in the numbers. Regardless, it is estimating at least two upsets tomorrow, in Florida and North Carolina. If it turns out to be acceptably accurate, I will begin posting projections for the GOP as well.

-Tyler

40 thoughts on “DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTIONS: SUPER TUESDAY 2

  1. Tyler- I am not trying to be a conspiracy theorist, but combining your predictions, normal poll predictions, and exit polls, do you think there is any evidence of foul play in, say, Ohio?

    It was something like 10 points off of the exit polls.

    Just asking for an informed opinion rather than a strictly BernieorDie person.
    Link to exit polls:

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  2. Turnout seems pretty high everywhere.
    Have you got enough data to predict the final turnout and project the results according to your model?

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  3. Three upsets tomorrow will likely transform Bernie from “challenger” status to “probable nominee”status

    Is winning three states going to somehow change the delegate math that heavily favours Clinton?

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    • “Three upsets tomorrow will likely transform Bernie from “challenger” status to “probable nominee”status, and I say this because early numbers indicate to me that Bernie will win (at least) the next eight states in a row, all the way until April 19th. If Sanders wins three states tomorrow, this means that in mid-April he will be able to say that he has won eleven of the last thirteen state primaries. That’s some serious momentum.”
      The explanation is in the article. Although these wins would not make up much, if any, of the delegate gap, the resulting momentum would be huge, and that momentum could lead to the gap being closed in later states.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. Hi Tyler,
    May I ask to what degree does your model take into account the GOTV movement in each state? Given that that movement seemed to play such a significant role in Michigan, I can only assume that it plays a significant role in your calculations. Do you anticipate that various of the 5 states tomorrow will have drastically higher or lower GOTV impact (particularly by Sanders supporters)?
    Lastly, can you pretty please share your estimation of whether Kasich or Trump will win Ohio? I realize this means going out on a limb a bit, as you mentioned your models are still being tested for the GOP side, but it would mean a great deal to the supporters of reasonable, decent political campaigning to feel a glimmer of hope!
    Kindest regards, and kudos on all your great work.
    Colby

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    • I doubt he’d reveal his secret sauce in detail, if this model pans out going forward, it could be a pathway to fame and wealth

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  5. So essentially in one day, it’s moved:
    Missouri, +5.0 to Sanders
    Ohio, +0.7
    Illinois, +2.0
    North Carolina, +1.1
    Florida, +0.6

    So big movement in Missouri and to an extent Illinois, some movement in North Carolina and little change in Ohio and Florida?

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  6. On the GOP side, who are the upsets in favor of?

    Does Cruz benefit in both? Rubio or Kasich?

    Or is it split between two of that group?

    Would be chaos on the GOP side if all three win a state tomorrow, would ensure a brokered convention

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  7. The good news in Ohio is that the trend seems to be moving towards Bernie

    (Last prediction had him at 48.09, now its 48.80)

    That indicates there may be room for him to over-perform the Prediction tomorrow if there is a strong GOTV drive

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