If you don’t typically read my entire analysis, this is the time to read it all. There are many caveats to the below numbers.
Tuesday is effectively the last of the Democratic primaries for 2016 (with the exception of D.C.), and is indeed the last opportunity for the Sanders campaign to close the pledged delegate gap. As we all know, all eyes are on the state of California, which is set to allocate 475 delegates between the two candidates. Bernie Sanders will need a massive majority of these 475 delegates (and, realistically, several large wins elsewhere too) to take the lead before the Democratic convention. Unfortunately for Bernie, my models are not suggesting that a pledged delegate lead is currently possible, despite four projected wins on Tuesday. However, it does look like California will be a very close race, and there is a very real possibility that Sanders could win there after all. Here are my projections:
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Bernie Sanders should do better in California than is currently expected. Though I do believe that the state is leaning towards a Hillary win, there are several reasons why it should be a close race:
- Sanders has 74.0% of Democrat Facebook likes in California. This is similar to Kentucky (73.9%), Oklahoma (75%), and West Virginia (75%). Hillary lost OK and WV, and won KY by 0.4% of the vote.
- California is a semi-closed primary, which Sanders has usually done quite well in. Other semi-closed primaries that Sanders won are New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and West Virginia. Semi-closed primaries that Clinton has won are Massachusetts and North Carolina.
- Demographically, California is fair for both candidates. It is indeed a diverse state, but not necessarily to Sanders’ detriment. California has an African American population less than the country average, though it has a significant Hispanic population. Hispanics do tend to prefer Hillary, though my finding is that this effect is not very substantial. More on this effect in New Mexico below.
- Of the twenty-one states that Sanders had a greater proportion of the relative number of campaign contributions, he has lost only five (IA, MA, NC, AZ, KY). Furthermore, he has won four states in which he had a lower number of relative campaign contributions than he has in California (CO, OK, NE, RI).
However, California typically has a large amount of early voting, which has historically been very beneficial to Hillary Clinton. I am admittedly unsure of the exact percentage of Californian likely voters that have chosen to already vote by mail, but it is my personal belief that this number will be around 40-45% after all of the vote comes in. I expect Bernie to capture only about 40% the early vote while Hillary secures 60%, but at the same time I am expecting Bernie to win about 57% of the day-of vote while Hillary trails with about 43% on Tuesday.
With all of that being said, I am very uncertain of what will happen in California. My personal feeling is that Bernie Sanders has a decent chance of winning, but gut feelings aren’t typically based on numbers, so take that with a grain of salt.
Bernie Sanders should clean house in Montana. This is for the following reasons:
- Bernie Sanders has 83.87% of Democrat Facebook likes in Montana. Only in five states does he do better, Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Alaska, and Oregon, and he won all of these states by large margins.
- Only in three states does Bernie have a higher relative number of campaign contributions, in Vermont, Alaska, and Oregon.
- Montana is only 0.4% African American. Sanders does exceedingly well under these circumstances.
We should see a blow out in Montana. Clinton has surprised us all before (Wyoming…), but I would be exceptionally surprised to see a margin of victory of less than 15% here.
Hillary Clinton should win New Jersey with ease due to the following reasons:
- New Jersey is 13.7% African American, which is above the country average. As many of you know, Hillary does very well with African American voters.
- Bernie has only 70.0% of Democrat Facebook likes in New Jersey, and in only ten states is this measure more unfavorable for him.
- Bernie’s relative number of Google searches over the last three days is only 0.68. I do feel like this measure is losing its relevance as the campaign has went on, but regardless, this is the worst of all fifty states. Alabama comes in second with 0.832.
- The only redeeming factor in New Jersey for Bernie Sanders is the fact that it is a semi-closed primary.
I believe that the margin of victory in New Jersey will be anywhere from 5-20%.
New Mexico stands to be one of the most interesting elections on Tuesday. Other outlets are projecting a Hillary blow out here (and I’m not so sure about my projection that I would say that they are definitely wrong), but I am projecting a Sanders win for the following reasons:
- New Mexico is Sanders 12th best state when it comes to the relative number of campaign contributions for him (he has not lost any state where he had a higher number than in this state), and he has won twelve other states in which he had a lower relative number of campaign contributions than in New Mexico.
- Sanders has 79.49% of Democrat Facebook likes in New Mexico. He has not lost any state where he has a higher number than 79.49%, and he has won seven other states in which he had a lower percentage of the Democrat’s Facebook likes (i.e., a number lower than 79.49%).
These are the two primary drivers of my New Mexico Sanders win, but there are two major factors that may produce the alternative outcome.
- New Mexico holds a closed primary. As many of you know, Sanders seems to generally do very poorly in this contest format, as he typically has a substantial reliance on independent voters. He has only won one closed primary, in Oregon, and that state was uniquely predisposed to give Sanders a win regardless of contest format type. However, Sanders did just come within a half a percentage point of Hillary Clinton in Kentucky two weeks ago in Kentucky’s closed primary. Sanders has a far greater relative number of campaign contributions in New Mexico than in Kentucky (2.42 versus 1.79), has a far greater percentage of Democratic Facebook likes in New Mexico than in Kentucky (79.49% versus 73.91%), and has a much smaller African American population in New Mexico than in Kentucky (2.1% versus 7.8%). It could be the case that Sanders is increasingly being viewed more favorably among lifelong Democrats, or that Kentucky was a lone anomaly.
- New Mexico has the largest Hispanic population of any state, about 47%. Hispanics do seem to prefer Clinton (hypothetical example, if you were to randomly select 100 Hispanics in Kentucky, instead of voting 46.8% for Hillary as was the state result, these 100 Hispanics would vote 61.0% for Hillary. This effect is based on my analysis of about two hundred randomly selected counties from all over the U.S.), but my finding is that this effect is not so substantial as to produce a Hillary victory in New Mexico as it is fighting against the above factors; abnormally high campaign contributions and Facebook presence.
If Hillary does win New Mexico, a very real possibility, I believe that it will be because of the closed primary format, and not the effect Hispanics have. Hispanics do not seem to vote as “monolithically” as African Americans do according to all of my county level analysis (an analysis performed almost entirely to answer the New Mexico Hispanic question). Perhaps I am totally in left field predicting a Sanders win here, but all of the indicators that I rely on are pointing solidly in that direction.
In case anyone wasn’t able to already predict that Sanders would win North Dakota, I’ll make the case.
- North Dakota is only 1.2% African American, similar to Maine (1.2%), Vermont (1%), and Utah (1.1%). As you all know, Hillary lost these states by margins between 30-67%.
- Sanders has a very high number of relative campaign contributions in North Dakota, among his best states, and not too dissimilar from the aforementioned Montana.
- North Dakota also holds an open caucus, which Sanders does extremely well in (MN: 61.6%, ID: 78.0%, UT: 79.3%, WA: 72.7%). It literally does not get any better for Bernie unless the state is named Vermont.
I expect the margin of victory in North Dakota to be anywhere from 30-50%
South Dakota is highly similar to North Dakota, and for that reason Sanders should probably win by around the same amount.
- South Dakota is also only 1.2% African American, similar to Maine (1.2%), Vermont (1%), and Utah (1.1%).
- Sanders also has a very high number of relative campaign contributions in South Dakota, albeit slightly less than North Dakota. It is still among his best though.
- Bernie has 78.57% of all Democrat Facebook likes in South Dakota, slightly higher than in North Dakota (76.9%). Only in a handful of states does he do better.
- South Dakota, unlike North Dakota, holds a semi-closed primary. As mentioned before, Sanders still does well in semi-closed primaries, but not nearly as well as in open caucuses. This reduces his expected vote share compared to North Dakota, but together with the difference in Facebook presence, the differences are mostly a wash within my model.
Like North Dakota, I expect the margin of victory to be quite large. Though it is of course possible that Hillary will keep South Dakota closer than I estimate, I would be surprised if the margin of victory was less than 15%.
In conclusion, major kudos to both candidates for such a hard fought race. As you all probably could’ve guessed, I am a Bernie supporter, but despite my perceived shortcomings of Hillary, I do believe that she would make a good president. Obviously I would prefer that Bernie win, but with the system we have now (super-delegates), Bernie probably came as close as any seemingly unknown outsider ever could.
Lastly, I want to say THANK YOU to all of you that have consistently tuned in and listened to what I have had to say over this election season. It really means the world to me that hundreds of thousands of people care about and appreciate my work. Also, a special thanks to all of you who have donated to help fund the work that I do here, and have ensured that I have a roof over my head! I am truly blown away at the support I have received, and I’m very excited for all of the upcoming elections later this year. What started as just an experiment to see if Facebook and Google data were useful in predicting elections has blossomed into something much bigger, and, in my opinion, we are witnessing the birth of an entirely new methodology of predicting elections; one that will be more powerful in the future than we could have ever imagined.
50 thoughts on “DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY PROJECTIONS: CALIFORNIA, MONTANA, NEW JERSEY, NEW MEXICO, NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTH DAKOTA”
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Can you do this for the general election also? Like a weekly or monthly writeup on how each state is predicted to go?
Wrong again Bob! HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa!
wonder how much money tyler made betting pn predictit.com against his fake projections, something he appears to be doing as a fraudulent scheme to defraud across state lines 😦
so much for felons being “rehabilitated” with shock probation tyler is on
“I think that Clinton voters are voting for a candidate, and Bernie voters are voting for something bigger, they are voting for an idea”
Lol,f**k you and your horrible B.S projections. Bernouts are brain dead.
I have to ask you Tyler what do you think is going on tonight?
Sent from my iPad
The majority of voters are giving the grumpy commie a woopin,that’s what going on tonight. Hes been REJECTED.
Great work, Taylor. But, looks like the AP call yesterday depressed Bernie voter turnout in a big way.
Maybe it did, maybe it didn’t.
I would almost expect Clinton support to be depressed from AP call and figure it was in the bag/not show up
Thats a very obvious reason.
Sorry I mean it is very obvious that Bernie’s vote percentage reduced due to AP call.
Looks like Hillary is gonna crush it tonight.
Thank you for the great work, Tyler!
I don’t know what’s gonna happen in New Mexico. I think the unpredictable independent vote will narrowly carry Bernie over in California. The others are totally forgone.
I make projections based on the number of bumper stickers I see and it looks like this:
CA: Bernie (100%) – Clinton (0%)
NM: Bernie (100%) – Clinton (0%)
SD: Bernie (100%) – Clinton (0%)
ND: Bernie (100%) – Clinton (0%)
MT: Bernie (100%) – Clinton (0%)
By my analysis, Bernie is going to win every state by a 100% margin
Hahaha. Good one.
So Clinton would widen her lead in net pledged delegates if your projects are correct?
And they are absolutely not correct. New Jersey is going to be a win for Clinton. fivethirtyeight.com gives her a >99% chance there.
Oops. Never mind.
Joke’s on you, buddy. 😀
Reblogged this on Corrigedum.
Thanks for this analysis. Good to see that the polls showing Sanders in a near tie in CA are accurate. I calculated it: if these predictions are true, Clinton should net exactly ONE delegate from all these states. So basically Bernie can expect his deficit to stay the same, not shrink nor grow. I personally think the delegate game is over: it’s way too hard for him to overcome. But winning CA, NM, SD, ND, and minimizing his loss in NJ despite not gaining a ton of delegates bodes well for his case for shifting the Democratic agenda at the convention.
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I agree. If sanders can win CA, NM, SD, and ND and keep the margin in NJ small sanders will be going into the Convention with a lot of firepower. If he can somehow win all 6 states on Tuesday, you better believe we will see SDs moving to his side before the convention and a lot more switching at the convention.
Bernie and many of his followers remind me of someone grieving and refusing to accept the death of a loved one. Stages of grief are slow and hard to deal with but in the case of Bernie’s campaign I don’t know many ever will so at this point many will have to decide if they accept reality or continue to fantasize about what could have been. For Sanders to lead these young people down this road of make believe is selfish and make you wonder what his true motivation is.
I suspect Clinton will do better in CA than expected. Early voting and demographics seem favorable enough to do it…and she seems to do quite well in large states. Which would make sense if she is ahead in national polling….small subsets of populations favor Sanders – caucuses, small states. Look at Wahington caucus vs primary. Sanders has a lock on ND and Montana. SD could actually be closer than expected (10-15 point gap) but Bernie will absolutely win it. NM could go either way but I would bet on Clinton by a couple points. CA Clinton +5 to +10 and NJ Clinton +20 or more.
I live in CA and this state is going to Bernie by a fairly large margin I believe. You RARELY see anything HRC related. I see Bernie people all over San Diego county and VERY VERY few HRC people. Less than 5 few.
I also live in CA and love how Bryce is basing his prediction off of how many bernie bumper stickers he sees (Scientific poll, naturally)
Haha. Right? I literally only know 1 HRC supporter in Southern California. So, take it for what you will.
Please🙏🏼 Cali, save the 🌎World and 🔥BERN that ballots tomorrow!!!
Keep in mind that Clinton beat Obama by 8 points in 2008 and that was without the black vote. Obama’s support in 2008 from indies, young voters, and liberal voters was far stronger than Bernie’s is today. So just because you dont see clinton’s support in your social circle doesn’t mean it’s not there and while I think california will be bernie’s, i think youre setting yourself up for disappointment anticipating a 10+ point win.
Good work as always Tyler and thanks for your detailed predictions of this year Democratic primary. I think it safe to say just by demographics of Montana and the Dakotas sanders will win them so I think everybody will be looking as New Jersey, New Mexico, and California especially California.
Just throwing some numbers out there Clinton will either win NJ by about 5-7.5 pts or lose by about
1-2 points and this comes down to one thing, Indy voters. I will explain why in a minute. Clinton should win New Mexico but I do not know by how much because there are no recent exit polls for NM but in 2008 1/3 of the voters were Latino and the rest were white. So if sanders can tie latino or come close to it like he is doing in California polls and win whites by a few points, NM might be a close race if not Clinton should take it easily. California should be a very interesting race despite some analysts predicting a Clinton win of 10-15 points mainly because it most recent polls Clinton and Sanders are statistically tied. A few interesting things about this is that these polls were only surviving likely voters with one poll surveying all voters which gave Sanders a +1 win. Another interesting thing is that these polls included very little Indy voters and almost no new voter. This is why I think California will either be a slight win for Clinton (1-2 points) or a nice win for Sanders (5-7.5 points). More on this later.
Bro, Clinton is going to win NJ by *a lot* more than 5-7 points. There’s a reason Bernie has completely ceded the state like when he ceded the entire South. I agree with you though that California will be pretty close regardless of who wins; I highly doubt it’ll be more than 4 points in either direction.
In 2014 68 percent of the state voted by mail. So it’s expected to be over 70 percent this year.
If I am not mistaken California like many other states use mail-in ballot voting for their off season elections thus why we saw such a huge percentage of people voting that way. The latest poll done by CBS/YouGov done between May 31-June 3rd.(https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xwv005j8gd/ForRelease_20160605_CA.pdf) shows that only 17% of the people they surveyed have already did early-voting or mail in. At most I can see maybe another 10-15% more people voting that way with most coming from mail in voting. Thus I suspect 70% of voters will be voting on Tuesday!
Thanks you for your good work Tyler. I hope you get recognition for your shockingly accurate prognostications of Michigan and Indiana.
However, I think Clinton is going to win California ever so slightly. California hasn’t been a progressive state since the Pat Brown Administration which was over 50 years ago. This state after all chose Bill Clinton over its own former governor back in ’92.
You’re right to say that Hispanics aren’t monolithic. Unlike African Americans, Hispanics are divided by nationality, racial admixture, and then environment. A Mexican-American in Washington state is much more likely to be liberal than a Mexican-American in Texas, or a Cuban-American in Florida.
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What effect in California do you think there will be if Clinton is declared the presumptive nominee after polls close in New Jersey?
Thanks for all your hard work! I have been following these predictions for a while now and have been super impressed by the accuracy (e.g. Indiana)!
I’m not Tyler, but I expect the race being called after New Jersey will help Bernie in the West. We’ve been going to the voting booths and caucuses all primary season long while the media would repeatedly dismiss Bernie’s run as over. I expect Hillary’s supporters are more likely to stay home if or after the race is called.
Thank you Tyler, for your amazing work and your level of honesty and integrity. While I too had hoped for a blowout victory for Bernie in CA, we’ve sure done well for a campaign that has been almost totally blacked out by the corporate media, and treated with such utter contempt, disregard and disrespect by the Establishment Democrats. It’s been a year filled with the polarities of hope and disillusionment.
Thank you again for all that you do, and may you have YUUGE success in your future.
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You’re referring to Martin O’Malley’s campaign right? He’d be the one who was ignored earlier. The media had always decided it was the feisty Democratic socialist from Vermont vs Clinton. The media likes ratings and they like interesting characters…and Trump, Hillary, and Sanders sure are interesting characters. You also seem to think it’s unfair or wrong that the establishment of a party would support a former Secretary of State who was in the sitting Democratic president’s administration and was First Lady during back to back Democrat presidencies….and has been an active Democrat for decades and supported and fundraises for loads of down ballot Dems to help grow the party and take on Republicans.
If O”Malley had gotten traction from people, maybe he would have gotten more media attention. But Sanders got his traction from people who came out and went to his rallies even before the primaries started.
Tyler, thanks for all your hard work! It’s been terrific to follow it. I have grown more anxious awaiting results here because I’ve seen how well you project. As I said in the email a while back, don’t let the haters get you down. Just keep doing the damn thing! 🙂 While I had hoped you’d say Bernie would win a blowout in California, I understand your analysis and position. It makes sense. I am also curious if New Mexico will turn out that way though I do think it’ll lean toward her. But then again, that’s gut feeling, and this is statistics. lol Thanks again for the great work!
Joseph (Matt) Lawrence
I think even a tie in California would be spectacular!
While I agree because of the message it’d send that Her Royal Highness is a weak candidate, I’d still love to see a blowout. But that’s me. lol
I don’t think she’s particularly weak in the sense she can’t get any lower vs Trump. Everyone pretty much has a solid opinion of Clinton by now and there aren’t any surprises. Bernie had much more variability…he could go up by a lot but also down by a lot in an actual general. She’s a safe generic D to run, especially against someone like Trump. The man just can’t control himself, the media is finally attacking him, and a debate with Hillary on domestic and foreign policy will be a joke. I would be willing to bet a lot Trump’s debate answers involve a derogatory term to woman against Clinton at some point……Biden probably would have been the safest bet of the three vs Bernie and Hillary.
Hillary is in serious legal jeopardy and so is her staff. Several FOIA cases have really been dogging her.
One of her staff already got immunity for testimony from the DoJ and he just notified the judge of his intent to take the fifth amendment (the guy who operated her private server) in a deposition that was set for tomorrow. The judge in that case has ordered his lawyers to file a brief tomorrow explaining what his immunity deal is with the Department of Justice, because you can’t take the fifth if you are not in danger if incriminating yourself. If the judge orders him to testify, because he can not incriminate himself, then he will be in contempt of court if he refuses to testify.
This same judge may order Clinton’s deposition before the nomination. This judge is very serious about how Clinton set up this private server, operated it and then avoided FOIA requests with it. And he is moving ahead full steam.
In another FOIA case, the DoJ will have to disclose whether an official investigation of Clinton has been ongoing. That will have to happen real soon as well. I am not sure of the exact date they will have to tell the court about that.
So it is very likely that people’s opinion of Clinton will continue to tank even more as these civil cases move forward, even if the FBI does not recommend an indictment. And that recommendation is highly likely in the not too distant future. Perhaps it has already happened. But the public will know about this recommendation real soon.
New Mexico and California look like they’re gonna be nail biters. At the very worst though, we should have three more states to add to the total Bernie wins. Not bad at all for a 74 old socialist that took on the Queen.
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Amen to that, Justine!
thanks for your amazing job Tyler!