At the beginning of April, when I posted the April outlook, I had initially believed that Bernie Sanders would be able to make enough progress to at least secure two to three victories on April 26th. For whatever reason, it seems as though Hillary has been able to prevent much of this progress from being made in a majority of the states that have elections tomorrow. Bernie has picked up a few tenths of a point in both Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, while losing support in Connecticut, Delaware, and Maryland. Here are my final projections:
I am estimating a single Hillary loss in the state of Rhode Island, though with a margin of only 6.4%. This close margin leads me to believe that it could still be a toss up. The estimated margin of the Bernie loss in Connecticut is about the same, 6.2%, and the estimated margin of the Hillary victory in Pennsylvania is 9.4%. If these margins hold true, this will produce a sixty delegate surplus for Clinton. Furthermore, if Bernie loses four or five of these states, I suspect he may drop out of the race. An additional sixty delegate deficit tomorrow will only strengthen the perception that obtaining the nomination is essentially impossible for him at this point.